the US dollar is moving sideways after a nice move up.
Gold and crude react to the dollar as both are, in part, priced in dollars.
weekly-
in a long trade from 81.805 to 83.829. stop at 79.781.
the weekly time pressures are down thru May 14th.
Daily –
price traded down thru a short entry at 80.45 with a target 79.32
but the time cycles turned up on the 14th and we entered a short cycle long retracement trade from 80.84 to 81.89
had a very nice move off the 70’s. looks very much like the gold trade.
weekly-
in a long trade from 81 next target is 95. sell stop at the lows of 71.63.
Daily –
in the long trade from 82.24 to 92.38. but in a retracement down from the 84.70 to the first target of 80.90.
but time and trade pressures are extended down so look for more to the down move soon.
the 4-23 cycle top is showing up in multiple markets – be careful with the longs.
All the metals, copper, silver, platinum, gold have reached over sold positions.
gold is representative.
June Gold Futures
long term –
in two trades:
short in the long cycle from 1142 to 857;
but inside the short trade in a long retracement uptrade from 1135 with 1228 as the next target.
Daily –
in a long trade from 1112 and have reached the second target. the next up target 1189.
the pullback did touch the short entry of 1126.
but now we have a new shorter cycle trade entry at 1145 to 1167.
time pressures are about to turn up. trade pressure is up.
Goldman Sued by SEC.
— happens just at the top of the cycle, so we see maximum impact. (GS down 23 points at this writing)
Weekly – remains in the long trade with the next target at 1221 – 1260. 1140 starts the new short trade to 1071.
Daily – 1222 is the next target up, but near the short entry of 1184.25 with a first target down of 1144 and a final target of 1103.
trade pressures down and time pressures down.
Intraday has moved down quickly to it extended target, seeing some temporary support at a cycle end.
this is the “melt up” instead of a “melt down” with market participants not getting the pullbacks to get in and seeing the market move away from them.
gravity is suspended for the moment.
But whatever the headlines; these market cycles keep us on the right side of the market.
weekly –
have met the 1187 target. the next target is 1221.
1116 will start a new short trade.
the time cycles turn down 4 -24. trade pressures are fully extended up.
Daily –
both time and trade pressures are extended up. two different time cycles turn down 4-23 thru May 11th.
the next upside target is 1221; then the area of 1238 to 1254.
a trade down thru 1172 would setup a correction to 1145 and possibly 1091.
weekly – time pressures down into May 14th.
the trade is long with a stop at 79.78. the next target up is 83.82
Daily –
the next target up is 83.24. time pressures are down thru April 14th. trade pressures are down.
the short entry of 80.45 has been met; the next downside target is 78.45.
weekly –
target remains the 89.11 level.
daily –
both trade pressures and time pressures are extended up time pressures turn down April 26th.
price moved thru the 82.24 long entry on March 30th and quickly moved to the 85.59 target and then the next day moved to just below the 87.17 target. the next target up is 88.94.
a short entry is at 83.38.
Prudence dictates tight stops on the long positions.
gold.
weekly –
after testing the 1040 low gold futures have moved up to trigger a new long entry of 1145. 1244 is the target, which is slightly above the high of 1232. technically this move up is a retracement inside the longer term down move. A trade above that December high will negate the down trade.
Daily –
we had gold long from 1110 into a 1136 target below the March 3rd high. it has broken that high and moved on to the 1163 target. the next target is 1189. 1125 will start the new short trade. trade pressures are extended up and the time pressures are down.
The S&p futures seem very overbought but the long term cycles are rising until May 21st.
on the monthly, 1228 is the 68% retracement of the entire 2008-2009 down-move.
weekly –
1187 is the next target up. 981 will start a new downmove to 786.
Daily –
cycle pressures are now down. Trade pressures are now down.
the prior 1162 target area is acting as a pivot.
we still have the 1181 target on the upside followed by 1198-1209
and we have a short entry at 1149 with a 1069 target.
Crude chart looks like the silver trade, moving side ways trapped between 83.49 and 78.86.
long term is the same, with a target of 90. and in this long trade is up till it breaks 53.20 on the downside.
Daily-
short cycle pressures are up tomorrow and we see the price moving up to a new long entry of 82.34. the next target would be 85.59 but the resistance at 83.49 would have to be overcome first. we have traded thru, but not closed below, the short entry price of 79.79 three times. i would view that as support for now. Trade pressures are turning up so the long trade seems valid.
the cycle pressures turn down 4-26.