Industrials vs Precious metals.
Industrials down – precious up.
but both have reached over sold and over bot, respectively.
Copper has a target of 2.96 and tagged 3.00 yesterday. Platinum next target is 1557. Palladium target reached target of 483.
expect consolidations and then a new move will present itself.
Gold –
reached a target of 1209. next target up is 1253. trade pressures diverging. time pressures are up.
1162 will start a new move down.
China’s market responding to china’s eforts to reduce the stimulus measure.
S&P lower high was made on May 3rd and we have today taken out the lower low of last week. the previous sell trigger should have protected any long positions.
the futures have now moved down quickly to the days low of 1164.25, very near the 1163.50 target projected.
Long Term –
is still in the move up with a target of 1221. a move below 1147 starts the move down. both time and trade pressures are down.
Daily –
Both time and trade pressures are down. the down cycle ends May 11th.
in the move down from 1190.25 to the first target of 1163.50 then to 1150. Final target down is 1110.
will need to take out the recent highs to restart a move up.
the dollar is the safe haven trade. must buy dollars to buy T-Bonds. so both are up.
the 10 year Treasury yield has dropped from 4.013 to 3.625 in 20 days
DX –
long term the 83.829 target remains. the sell stop remains 79.73. the move up has overcome the downward time pressures. these pressures turn up May 11th, so could accelerate.
Daily –
reached a 83.285 target, the next target up is 84.13. showing some divergence here and time pressure down thru May 12th.
82.66 would start a short cycle move down to 81.77.
as the world rushes to the dollar and the US bonds, it should be positive for the alternative currencies, the precious metals. The industrial metals are logically down reflecting the china “slowdown” worries.
Platinum and Palladium have sell signals. Perhaps an early reflection of China slowing, Copper has been in the sell mode from 3.51, next target 2.964.
silver triggered a long term buy at 17.40 to 20.18, but the daily is showing significant pressures down thru the 11th.
Gold
Long term –
while still in the long term down move the retracement up has reached a long term target and is consolidating. next target up is 1228.71.
Daily –
in the move up from 1145 and reached the 1189.60 target. the retracement begun today at 1176 could take us to 1153 then 1130.
Crude has tried to rally twice and fails again today. the down cycle ends May 20th.
Long term – the upside target remains 95.00. the sell stop remains 71.68
Daily-
Is still in the up move from 83.58, with the next target of 90.28;
but has has crossed the 84.825 sell trigger a second time, the next target down is the 80.23 low and then 79.386.
the projected 1217 target was met yesterday; where we would normally expect some consolidation or retracement. the retracement began almost immediately and was sufficient to trigger the short entry.
time pressures have turned down on both the weekly and the daily.
trade pressures are down on all time frames.
weekly –
1221 is the next target up, but we have traded below last weeks low, and a trade below 1147 will confirm the long term short – with a first target of 1077.
Daily –
todays trade below 1190.25 triggered the short entry, the next target is 1163.50. it will take a trade to new highs to restart the bull move again. the cycle suggest that time pressures will turn up May 11th.
Copper gave a sell signal two days ago at 3.4967 and followed thru today with a 15 cent drop. silver dropped a few days ago and has recovered to form a lower high and looks vulnerable. Platinum and palladium are holding their long patterns.
Gold-
the long term is still in the down move to 974. the current up move is inside that down move.
the latest projection on gold was a move up to 1167, which was met at the close today.
the next target is 1176 on the daily and 1183 on the weekly.
a trade below 1126 will start a new short trade to 1079.
the time pressures and trade pressures won out. Crude tried to rally higher and failed, moving down three point in the last two days.
Weekly –
correcting down in the longer term up move from 81.08 to 95.00, sell stop at 71.59.
Daily –
Traded up from the 83.58 entry to the 88.51 target, then in the pullback triggered the 84.84 short entry and is approaching the first target of 81.16, and then to next downside target of 79.42.
Trade pressures turning up and time pressures turning down.
with the uncertainty in the sovereign markets, the Dollar have quickly moved to the projected targets and now appears extended on the upside.
Weekly –
the time pressures are down til May 14th and divergence is appearing.
the 83.829 target is next on the upside. stop at 79.79.
Daily –
currently testing the recent high pivot of 82.52. buying pressure is extended and the time pressures are reaching a peak.
the next target up is 82.98. 80.54 will start a new move down.
the earnings coming in now, seem to justify the move up from the February low of 1036.
That low also coincided with the beginning of a new long cycle. this cycle peaked March 24 and will end May 11th.
Weekly-
in the long trade to 1221. a trade thru 1140 starts a new short trade to 1071.
Daily-
time pressures are down starting April 23rd. trade pressures are down now.
in the uptrade with the next target of 1216.
the next short trade begins with a close below 1184.50, first target is 1156 and a final target 1103.