at 86.62, the flight into the dollar is driving much of the currency and metals markets. all time frames indicate fully extended trade pressures.
the long term retracement target of 85.48 has been met. the up cycle has a projection of 87.88.
83.00 signals a new move down.
Daily – 6 days into the rising cycle. the next target up is 88.337
a trade below the low of high bar would start a retracement to 83.25.
Copper continues it fall at 2.92.
Copper approached a longer cycle target at 2.96; then after a pull back, generated a new short entry at 3.09 and a 2.58 target
gold is near the 1253 upside target and is consolidating/ a short entry is indicated at 1208 which activates 1158.
trade pressures are weakening while time pressures remain up.
The spike down has been all but forgotten. The euro sovereign debt problem is “solved” by providing liquidity to meet payments and the promise of spending cuts back to living within the countries’ means. The US may want to think how to do that.
Despite the headlines, the S&P moved in to short territory moving thru 1147 on the weekly futures and 1190 on the daily.
Weekly – short from 1147. the next down target remains 1043. 1200 will restart the move up. time pressures are down thru June 25th.
Daily – the time pressures have turned up til the last week of May. trade pressures are turning up. long in the retracement trade from 1101 ; at the 1167 target, next target is 1191. a trade thru 1140 will restart the move down to 1107.
[update] the Friday am futures are near the short entry of 1143.25, target 1111.
the dollar remains the safe haven currency for the moment.
Weekly – the upmove from 81.805 remains in place and the time cycle is up. the next target is 85.85.
Daily – reached a short cycle target, consolidated around the 85.076 target; then a spike down took the DX right to a short cycle short target
– and now a new upside entry price has been triggered. next target is 86.325.
time pressures are up and trade pressures are diverging.
Crude is extended down on all time frames which creates the potential for a move up.
Weekly – still in the up move to 95.00 until stopped out at 71.63.
Daily – next target on the downside is 73.74. today’s trade below 75.38 is signalling a new short entry to 72.19.
78.61 will start a new move up to 82.85.
if the Feb low is taken out, then 65.81 is activated as a down side target.
the June gold futures has made a new high of 1249 which moves the metal out of the downtrend. The trade pressures are showing some divergence, so some defensive measures are indicated. Time pressures are up and turn down in the last week in May.
Daily – 1253 remains the next upside target and 1200 will signal a downward retracement to 1153.
Monday morning futures are up 42 points from the Friday close.
Long term – short from 1147 and next target is 1044.
need a trade above 1200 to restart the bull move.
Daily – Long in the retracement up from 1101 to 1167. then next target up is 1191.
1121 starts a new leg down to the 1044 target.
A black swan day; a statistically unlikely event, down 1000 Dow points in one day.
that is roughly 100 S&P points. each point on the e-mini S&P futures contract is $50, so 100 points is a $5000 move per contract.
the value of the contract is the S&P price times the $50 – 1100 x $50= $55,000.
the performance bond required for each contract is slightly less than $6000.
1000 contracts, or $55,000,000, can be controlled with $6,000,000.
so, if a hedge fund (add the necessary zeros) gets on the wrong side of that trade and dumps them you can feel the multiplier effect thru S&P 500 stocks that the contracts represent.
Long term – the short entry price of 1147 was met confirming the short entry of 1190 on the daily. the long term target is 1077 and 1044 was touched by the spike down yesterday. I would expect that price to be revisited.
long term trade and time pressures remain down.
Daily – time and trade pressures both down. next target is 1043. 1101 is a long entry price to start a retracement to 1147 and we have traded thru it this Friday am, but the trade and time pressures don’t support the entry – wait.
an 82 cent move in one day! the time pressures warned of acceleration and it happened very quickly thereafter.
Long Term – two confluent targets at 85.48 and 85.85.
Daily – next target is 86.87. a trade thru 84.80 would signal a retracement to 83.01.
time pressures down, cycle ends 5-12. trade pressures up but diverging.
as mentioned earlier, crude prices failed to rally and are down hard.
the long term remains up, the stop of 71.43 is nearby.
Daily-
in the down move from 84.25, next target is 73.74. 78.61 will trigger a retracement up to 82.85.