Crude has reached the weekly down side 67.90 target. 59.86 is a new short entry point.
trade pressures are hard down. Time pressures are down but end June 18th
Conditions are in place for a move up. the long entry price is 72.08
Daily – Next down target 64.42.
Trade pressures down, but turning to up. Time pressures up.
71.44 is the long entry price.
gold appears to be setting up for a move up inside a longer term downtrend.
in the down move from 1208. the next target is 1154.
a trade up thru 1205 will start a new up move to the recent high.
Trade pressures are turning up. time pressures will be down thru June 4th.
copper has reached the 2.96 target and has been consolidating , the time pressures remain down. the next down target is 2.84. Trade pressures are up, time pressures are down. the long entry price of 3.1164 to 3.33 has been triggered; would wait for the next leg up.
The German parliament is working to a solution, again.
weekly – the 87.625 high was almost to the target of 87.978. 83.342 starts a move down.
daily – the sell entry price of 85.831 has been triggered. 83.631 is the next target down.
as mentioned the 1208 triggered the sell in gold. 1158 is the target, then 1135.
trade pressures are down and extended. time pressures are up.
[the friday noon high of 3.1164 in copper is the long entry to 3.33]
Crude is entering a new up cycle. SU is a good proxy for crude and has Canadian currency exposure.
weekly – 67.90 is next target down. 73.69 starts a retracement to 77.95
Daily – 65.81 is the next target down. 72.86 starts a retracement to 77.12.
all trade pressures are hard down.
never had a entry price to move the market in a short retracement.
pre-market Futures are touching the spike low.
money in-flow has the US 10yr Treasuries at 3.1%; the euro yen cross is rising.
weekly and daily trade pressures are hard down. time pressures remain up. so conditions exist for a rally.
next down target remains 1043.
1103 is required to start a retracement to 1148.
significant median line resistance above at 1111.
the hourly is at a down target, so some consolidation here is indicated.
watch the 30 yr bond futures for a selloff.
The Euro futures sold down to 1.2144 over the nite session, then today moved up nicely. Can’t interpret this to be more than short covering. But short covering rallies can be dramatic.
1.2274 started a small retracement rally to 1.2674. Need a trade thru 1.2855 on the weekly.
The S&P reacts to the Euro trading.
Technically, we are still in the long term monthly uptrend to 1342, until a trade below the 1019 level and then a 895 target.
inside that uptrend, the weekly has been in the sell trade from 1047 and the daily from 1190.
the downside target of 1043 remains for both the weekly and daily cycles.
todays low of 1098.75 was near the shorter cycle target of 1096, the next down side target is 1080.
a daily cycle retracement would be started with a trade above 1128, the next up target is 1158.
Time pressure is up til May 27th, then turns down thru Jun 21st.
Intraday– the time pressures are up. the intra-day trade pressures have turned up.
so, an intraday trade above 1119 might spark a small rally to the 1140.
Volatility is defined by days like today. the rally looked for yesterday arrived and was stopped at the prior short entry of 1143 which then turned the market down to the 1111 target.
Daily – next target on the down side is 1096.50 with risk to 1048.75. need to take out the high of May 18th to restart the up move.
trade pressures have turned down, the time pressures turn down May 28th.
so look for some acceleration.
the China Shanghai stock market, down 20%, has crossed in to bear market territory.
the Euro zone 2008 GDP was $15.12 trillion compared to the USA 2008 GDP of $13.84 trillion. Spain GDP of $1.6 trillion is the same size as California. Greece at $356 billion is the same size as Virginia. Italy has an economy of $2.7 trillion that is equal to Texas and Mexico combined.
China has a $4.3 trillion economy, much smaller by comparison, but because of their growth rate of almost 10% per year, controls the price of commodities at the margin. the Euro Zone is reported to be China’s #1 trading partner.
The S&P is reacting to uncertainty as much as a slowdown in the world markets.
Long term – still in the upmove to 1365. 1019 will start a new down move to 821. the weekly cycle has the short retracement underway to 1043. 1200 will restart the up move to 1344.
Daily – still dealing with the “spike”. the trade thru 1143 has moved down to one point away from the 1111.75 target. the time pressures are now up. trade pressures are now up. 1136 will start a move up to 1155.
intraday pressures are hard down, so the next move is likely up.
at 70.37, the break below the recent low of 71.63 has accelerated the move down.
Long term – 64.61 is the next target down. this cycle ends June 18th. 73.58 would start a retracement up.
Daily – in the down move from 78.56, next target is 65.81. 73.34 will start the retracement.