Author: Charlie

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_
Weekly – remains in the move down thru the 84.03 target to the next target of 70.58.
trade pressures are oversold. vol is bearish.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
consolidating around the 81.42 target, next target down is 68.09.

NAT GAS_
Weekly – Trade pressures are oversold. vol is bearish.
the 3.49 target is next and nearby.

Daily – At the end of the short trade at the 3.52 target.
trade pressures are over sold. volume is bearish.
expect consolidation.

the next move is not yet apparent.

Metals

COPPER_ remains in long term downtrend.
Weekly – the two targets at 2.96 and 2.92 have provided support for the last year.
Trade pressures are oversold and volume pressure is bearish.
the next target down is 2.62.

Daily – consolidating at the 3.00 downside target.
the next target down is 2.80.
trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.

a close above 3.09 starts a new move up.

GOLD_
Weekly – has been is this basing process for more than a year.
a close above 1238 provides a weekly long entry.
trade pressures are up. volume is bearish.

Daily – in the long entry from 1205. have reached the first 1245 target and now pulling back to the 25×5 MA.
Trade pressures are down and volume is bearish.
a second time thru at 1244 should restart the move up.

SILVER_
Weekly – has moved to test the 16.25 target.
trade presures are over sold, vol is bearish.

Daily – in the long trade from 17.33. the next target up is 18.43.
trade pressures are down. vol is bearish.
need a close above the 25×5 MA to confirm a move up.

S&P futures

Monthly – Trade pressures have turned down but are still up.
volume is bullish.
a close below 1830 will signal lower.

Weekly – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
the Friday close below 1945 has signaled a new short entry.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
the trade is short from 1990, the market first traded down to the 1955 target and tested that for three days.
then in two days dropped to test the 1919 target.

The rally Friday a week ago was enough to trigger a new long entry at 1948 which touched 1971 which was moving average resistance.
was quickly stopped out with the new short entry of 1949.
the next day rally was not enough to stop out the short trade and Thursday and Friday of this week saw the test of the 1911 short cycle target.

Then the spike downward at the Friday close toward the august low of 1862.

The next target down is the pivot low of 1862 and then the target of 1859.
This 1859 level would represent a 9% retracement from the 2014 high of 2014.

Large Caps Intel and Schlumberger report next week.
Absent external and international pressures, these could produce good news.

need a close above 1924 to signal a new trade higher.

[10/12 Sun Nite futures at 1880, testing the August lows.]

[10/13 Mon closes below the August Lows.Next target is 1859/1815 on the futures. the SPX target is 1829]

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the next target up is 86.78.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is bullish.
The trade is short from 86.14. met the 85.01 target.
the next target sown is 83.89.

need a trade above 86.65 to restart the move up.

30yr T-BONDS_
Weekly – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
next target up is 143-16.This target will be at the highs of the last three years.

What will have to happen to have the inflows into the US Dollar to drive this bond price  higher?
A “safe haven” event?

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
Trade is long from 135-00. At the 141-14 target. Expect consolidation here.
The next target up is 146-02.

 

Oil& Gas

CRUDE_
Weekly – Trade pressures remain down. volume bearish.
The 84.03 target and pivot low were retested, as projected.
the next weekly target is 70.58.

Daily – trade pressures remain down, somewhat oversold. volume is bullish.
In the short trade from 87.92, met the 89.68 target, consolidated and then moved sharply to the 84 pivot low.
the next target down is 81.44.

need a close above 88.02 for the long entry.

NAT GAS_
Weekly – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
next target down is 3.49.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
In this short trade from the Feb ’14 spike up.
next target down is 3.52.

Metals

COPPER_
Weekly – trade pressures down, but over sold. Volume bearish.

Daily – Trade pressures up. volume bullish. Probable consolidation here.
Still in the short trade, next target down is 2.90.

need a close above 3.09 for the long entry. Watch the FXI.

GOLD_
Weekly – trade pressures down but oversold. volume is bullish.
next target down still 1142. weekly long entry is 1238.

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish to neutral.
in the long trade from 1205. next target is 1246.
1180 is the stop.

SILVER_
Weekly – Trade pressures down. volume remains bearish.
consolidating on the 16.25 target area.

Daily – Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
Retracement Long from the 17.33 entry price. next target is 18.43.
stop is 16.65.

S&P Futures

Monthly – Volume is bullish. trade pressures are up.
long, the next target up is 2234.

Weekly – volume is bearish. Trade pressures remain up.
the short entry is 1945.

Daily – Trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
in the short trade from 1990. the 1955 target was acting as support until today.
the break down has taken the market to a 1933 low.
the next target down is 1919.

a move above 1964, today’s high, would signal a new move up.
the hourly charts are showing oversold.

[Monday morning 10/6 update: Daily S&P Futures – the 1919 was touched on Thursday and then Friday’s close above the 1949 long entry has put the market back in bullish territory. the next target up is 1999, volume is neutral. Trade pressures are up.]

[Friday the 10th, October, Well if you were quick to take profits each time the market moved you could have made some money intraday.  But after triggering a short entry at 1950, we are now back at the lows and at the 1911 first target down on the shorter cycle.  The S&P futures look to go lower to the august low and if momentum is enough, then to break down and test the 1874 target.
it will take a move above 1937 to get long again.]

US $$

USD (DX)_
Weekly – Trade and volume pressures are up.
the next target up is 88.76. then up to 94.46 which is near the 2010 high.

Daily – the trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the 84.73 level offered no resistance.
the next target up is 88.19.

a trade close below 85.63 would signal a retracement down.

30YR T-BONDS_
Weekly – Trade pressures are up. volume is nuetral.
the next target up is 143-16.

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
the long entry of 139-08 is touched today. a close above signals higher.
the next target up is 141-14.

a close below 135-08 is the stop.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_

The Nov’14 contract is now the front month.
Weekly – trade pressures are oversold and turning up. volume is bearish.
84.03 is the next target down.

Daily – trade pressures are down. volume is bearish.
the 89.68 downside target was met August, then a move up to the long entry of 93.67 was made twice but has not held.
the next target down is 81.44.

a close above 93.67 is required for a new long entry.

NAT GAS_
Weekly – trade pressures are up and volume is neutral.
next target down is 3.49.

Daily – trade pressures are up. volume is bullish.
However still in the down-trade to 3.54.

need a close above 4.43 to start the new long trade.

 

Metals

COPPER_
Weekly – oversold with bearish volume.

Daily – at the 3.00 target. next target down is 2.80.
volume is bearish and the trade pressures remain down.

need a close above 3.10 for a new long entry.

GOLD_
Weekly – trade pressures remain down and volume is bearish.
1142 remains the weekly target down.

Daily – Trade pressures have turned up. Volume remains bearish.
the next target down is 1195, with 1181 support at the recent lows.

a close above 1229 is required for a new long entry.

SILVER_
Weekly – trade pressures are down and volume remains bearish.
16.25 is the next target down.

Daily – Trade pressures are down and volume is bearish.
The net target down is 16.12.

need a close above 17.55 for a new long entry.