the dollar is a retracement up of the long cycle move down.
the next target down is 78.86
Daily – this upmove from 82.32 to 84.47 is showing some divergence with the trade pressures extended up. the 84.47 area could be substantial resistance, even a short level if it happens quickly.
the downward time pressures end in this last week of August. be alert for a pull back to the 81.50 area for new longs.
Copper –
pressures turned down. Copper triggered a long term sell on June 4th,
but the trade pressures have moved price into a retracement uptrend from June 25th. the target is 3.56 which is not enough to void the longer downtrend.
Daily copper is in the uptrade from 3.31 to 3.41. But the 2.93 down target is still active.
GOLD
the long term target is 1279.30, pressures are up but late in the time cycle.
Daily – next target is 1256.10. trade pressures are fully extended and showing some divergence.
1217 would signal a move down.
Down from 1212 high. the next target down remains 936. the entry price for a new move up is 1145.
Both monthly and weekly time pressures are down into mid October.
trade pressures are beginning to show oversold.
Daily –
in the down move from 1097, the next target is 1032.50. 1068 will signal a new move up to 1097; which is still in the downward channel. Some divergence is suggesting the down move is becoming oversold.
[Update Friday 27th10:44amCST] GDP down, long bonds down, S&P up.
need to take out the 1061 8/26 intraday high and move thru the 1068 EP.
a measure of money flow into the treasuries.
tangible assets react inversely to the dollar direction.
The dollar held support at the 80.00 level and, as expected, made a move up thru the 82.92 entry price. the price target is 84.47.
82.00 will signal a new move down.
Oil in the down move from the 93.62 high to 69.50, if it doesn’t hold then to 61.09.
long term and daily trade pressures show oversold; and time turns up September 3rd.
74.22 is the signal for a move up.
Copper and Gold.
Copper is showing a lower high and downward pressures. at the entry price with the first target of 2.98. a break back above the recent high would restart the upmove.
Gold is moving to its final target of 1256 from the 1182 entry price. pressures are extended up, the time pressures turn down mid september. 1211 would signal a new down move.
Long term pressures remain down.
the trading range since Feb 2010 has been between 1212 and 1004 on the futures.
Daily has touched the 1097 entry price twice but hasn’t made a move thru.
the prior retracement down was stopped at the midpoint of the downmove
and we have subsequently made higher highs on the hourly cycles.
But need to break above the 1100 area to move out of the downward channel.
So, a move thru the 1097 entry seems to be the key.
A failure of the 1064 target would signal a move down to the 1037 target.
the weekly has down pressures til October 15th. 936 is the next target down. 1144 will start a new move up.
Daily – 2 pts away from the down target of 1064.
pressures fully extended down so next move is likely up. 1097 is the entry price.
the downward pressures turn up August 17th.
Intraday needs to take out the 1081.50 swing high.
the dollar bounced off the triple target area around 80.35 and has triggered the long entry price.
the daily is extended suggesting some pullback, but not much more than the original entry price. 81.10 signals the next down move.
CL –
both long term and daily moves are down. pressures are down.
the daily is extended and looking for a bounce , perhaps from the 74.12 downside target.
77.68 starts the new move up.