Author: Charlie

Metals

Copper – seem to be reacting less to the dollar and more to economic prospects in China.

the short pull back arrived, and the move up to 3.98 was stopped at the prior high and now has moved into the down move from3.77 to 3.42 with a first objective of 3.65.

time pressures are up and trade pressures are down.

Gold – as predicted the trade down thru 1360 started a new move down.  the trade stopped at 1319.
a trade thru 1352 should reastart the upmove to 1464 with first resisatnce at 1389.

trade and time pressures are both up.  But still trading against the upper timeframe’s downward pressures.

S&P Futures

the long term time pressures turn up this next week.  trade pressures are already up.
the 1143 long entry has created a 1572 target. the two main resistance points will be the April’10 high and 1281 resistance target.

Daily – the 1158 was easily penetrated, signaling higher. the S&P is now at the final retracement target of 1180.
the next target up is 1186.

trade pressures are very extended up and the long time pressures are near the peak of the upside and will turn down this next week, the short term time pressures are up til Nov 9th then both are down thru the first week in Dec ’10.

A trade thru 1149 will signal a move down to 1053 with a test at 1117.50.

$US (DX)

the down move in the dollar has influenced the stock market by increasing the dollar value of tangible assets.

currently in the move down to 74.50.  stopped by the 76.87 target.
a retracement move up would begin with a trade thru 77.24 to the 79.87 target.

Crude oil

after reaching the 83.50 target, crude moved into a down move from 84.41 on the way to the 78.81 target.
a retracement up inside that down move has triggered a new move up from 82.89 to 91.01, with resistance expected at 85.60.

time pressures are up. trade pressures are turning down.

Metals

Copper has reached the 3.84 target and signaled higher, after some pull back, to 3.98.
3.75 is the entry price for the move down to 3.4 with a test at 3.63.

all pressures are at the end of the up moves, but have not yet turned down.

Gold – the long term target of 1420 remains in place.  have reached the 1377 target and looking for some retracement here.  1361 would signal a move down to 1276 with a test at 1332.

time pressures are down. trade pressures are extended up with the hourly turning down.

S&P Futures

Long term is now in the uptrade from 1143 to 1286. trade pressures are up.
the time pressures are down, but those end 10/15 and 10/29.

Daily – have reached the expected 1058 and have traded above that. so the next higher target of 1180 is now active.
but now expect some consolidation and or retracement.
a move down thru 1142 sets up 1073 with a midpoint test of 1119.

60 min -a move down thru 1160 would set the 1148 target with a mid point test of 1157.

US (DX)

the trade is down to 74.80. trade and time pressures are down. time pressure turns up 10/29.

no indication of anything to stop the move down;
except the upside target on the Euro at 1.40. which has been tested once. this next week will tell if that price holds.

a move thru 77.98 will signal a move up.  [ i see a small change to up in the momentum indicators]

(FYI- the Brazilian ETF pays 3.6 %. – country growth plus yield and a currency hedge??)

Crude

weekly is down from the 94.88 high,  price has move back to 83.04 with significant movement in trade pressures,   now fully extended.

daily – looking triple “toppish” with the may, august  and now october 84.41 highs.
trade pressures have turned down.
78.81 is the next target down.

crude is sitting on the next long entry at 82.89.  a break thru the recent high will signal higher with the target at 91.01 after the 85.60 mid point test.
downward time pressures end this week.

Metals

Copper – have moved thru the 3.76 target signalling higher. next target 3.83. and longer term to 3.91.
a move below 3.68 will signal lower.
the trade pressures are fully extended and time is very near the end of a cycle.  any correction is likely to be significant.

Gold – 1347 was the final target for the july move up.  1377 is the next target on a longer cycle.  we subsequently traded to 1362 and quickly pulled back below the 1347 target.
a 1336 short entry was triggered and the second time thru will be significant.  a break above the 1363 will also be significant.
all trade pressures are fully extended up on all time frames.  time pressures are down to 10/19.

S&P Futures

Dollar at a support level. a possible move up will negatively affect metals and minerals, and the dollar based equity markets .

S&P Monthly and Weekly both have trade pressures up.  both have time cycles ending mid to late October.
the 1144 long entry price has been triggered.  not unusual to have a pullback at the entry signal.

Daily –  time cycle also ending October 14th.
trade pressures are showing divergences here at the top.  1158 is the next target up. on a longer cycle 1180 is the final D target.
1130 will signal a short entry to 1107.   a further break of the 1116 low would confirm a full move down to 1062.50