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San Diego
Author: Charlie
S&P Futures
long term coincident upside targets at 1345 remain in place. a move down thru 1075 is required to start a new leg down.
long cycle time pressures show up for the 2011 year; with shorter cycles showing downward pressures in the latter half of 2011.
Daily – still in the move up to 1358.
a retracement correction to 1200 would start with a move down thru 1257. first support would occur at 1229.50
trade pressures are extended up and showing some divergence.
time pressures are down from the Jan 5th peak to Jan 31.
US$ (DX)
the daily , at 80.69 has triggered a second move up in the dollar. the target is 85.43 with first resisitance at 83.03.
trade pressures are up.
time pressures are down thru late January.
At 1.2905, The Euro Futures are showing a down side target of 1.2317, but with a nearby upside trigger of 1.2945.
so the dollar move may be sideways til the time pressures down come to an end.
Crude Oil
the longer weekly cycle move up from 80.98 is still intact with the next target of 96.87.
inside this weekly move up, Oil is in the down move from 90.34 to 83.63.
currently at the first target of 87.04 and the prior low of 87.10.
trade pressures are down and time pressures are down thru early Feb.
a move up thru 90.15 should start a retracement up.
Metals
Gold – now moving down off the the 1432 high. have met the first target of 1354. the next target down is 1310.
But for now the the trade pressures are showing over sold and the time pressures are near the end of the down move.
a new retracement move up from 1369 could take gold to 1415.
Copper – remains in the move up from 4.23 and had reached the first target of 4.45. now in a retracement move down from 4.41 to 4.11. a move below 4.05 will void the longer cycle move up. both trade and time pressures are down thru late January 2010.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/founder-brook-hunt-sees-copper-peeaking-near-term-plunging-forgotten-levels-1500-2016
SLW – the silver proxy. SLW had made the move from 30.52 to the target of 42.37.
then began the consolidation down to 39.30.
a move up thru 38.45 triggered more upside which stalled and began a second leg down to the current target of 33.09.
both time and trade pressures are fully over sold so the next move is likely up.
a trade thru 35.83 will start a move to 44.60. resistance will manifest at 40.17 and the prior high of 42.34.
the Zero hedge article postulates a sharp selloff in copper, it would seem that would spill over into the other metals markets thru margin calls and profit taking.
S&p Futures
weekly – the move up from 1136 remains in place with the next target as 1279. a move down thru 1199 will signal a new move down. Time and trade pressures are turning down thru late February.
Daily – the next target is 1263. trade pressures are up but diverging. all time pressures are up.
a move down thru 1235 signals a new move down. time pressures turn down Jan 5th.
US$ (DX)
the weekly dollar went almost exactly to the 75.31 down target and is now in the upmove from 78.96 to 84.18.
the time pressures are up, but trade pressures have moved to overbought.
Daily – the dollar remains in the retracement down from the 81.91 pivot to 77.60. But a move up thru 80.72 may try to test that pivot, but both trade and time are turning down.
Crude Oil
Weekly – in the trade from 84.98 to 96.87 with resistance here at 90.86. the trade and time pressures remain up.
Daily – in between two trades. the up trade at 89.72 has been triggered but needs to move thru the recent high of 91.48 to confirm. the next target is 93.58.
87.83 restarts the down move.
Metals
Gold – the weekly is in the down move from 1384 to 1314.
trade pressures are down and showing divergence.
Daily – short entry price is 1368 with the first target of 1304 .
SLW – in the trade down to 34.94. trade pressures extended down, so look for a move up.
a trade thru 39.08 would signal a new move up to 47.55.
Copper – The industrial metals have diverged from the precious metals. copper has risen to its 4.285 target while gold is retracing. next target up is 4.43. But now entering the weekly downward time pressures and trade are showing some divergence.
Daily – in the up trade from 3.83 with the next target at 4.50. Trade pressures weakening and time pressures are now down.
S&P Futures
the tax conversations sent the market to 1235 at the open then down from there.
the new short entry is 1215 to 1155 with support at 1195.
appears to be a pullback inside the longer term uptrend so support should hold.
trade pressures are down and time pressures about to turn up.
intraday showing over sold, so may have a bounce up first.