Author: Charlie

S&P Futures

the last two monthly cycles off the march 2009 low,  lasted 16 and 15 months from bottom to bottom.
the last was 10 months up and 5 months down. we now 7 months into this recent uptrend.

On the weekly we are supported by the trend line from the October 2011 low.
trade pressures are extended and overbot, as they have been for some time. But now the time pressures have turned down.

the daily short entry was triggered at 1384. with the first target at 1332, which corresponds to the March lows.
we have moved into upward time pressures which suggest a more sideways movement rather than a volatile, immediate move down.

a close above 1374 would allow a long trade with tight stops.

US$ (DX)

US$$_ the expected target up is 82.66. and a trade thru 80.20 will be the signal for the long entry.

the downward time pressures are completed on 4-20-2012.

a trade below 78.54 is the stop.

Keep an eye on the euro futures, they may take some wind out the dollar temporarily.

Crude Oil (WTI)

Rumours are that another huge gas play has been discovered near the Permian Basin, close to Sweetwater, Texas.
the cost of the April crude oil futures are $108/bbl, the may futures are $102/bbl, the June futures are $103/bbl.  [aka contango]
it seems that sooner or later this cheap abundant gas must have an impact on the alternative energy prices.

CRUDE_ is still in a consolidation move side ways-to-down, after meeting the 110.69 target in March.
the short entry price of 107.16 took the price down to the first target of 101.34, the next projection down is to 95.32.

the time pressires are down until 4/30.  It will require a move up thru 105 to get long.

 

 

Metals

COPPER _ The time pressures down are at an end. the trade pressures are corrective and slightly over sold.
the 3.44 target remains intact.  a trade above 3.71 is required tostart a new move up.

GOLD_ a retest of the 1550 support seems likely. downward time remain thru the 1st week of June.
the long entry point of the shorter time cycle was touched last week and produced the expected pullback.
the 1614 downside target may offer support. if it fails then the 1550 is most likely.
a trade above 1676 is required to get long.

SILVER_ is in a trade down to 27.75 and perhaps further to test of the 26.27 lows.
time pressures are turning up.  trade pressures are neutral.

a trade above 33.80 is required to get long.

S&P Futures

S&P_ long cycles are up thru the end of August.
after a short entry of 1384, the Daily move is now down to 1332.

the time pressures are down thru 4-20.
trade pressures are down.

a move up thru 1374 could test the highs.

US$ (DX)

DOLLAR_ have traded up to the long entry price. a move thru should take the dollar higher to 82.66.

downward time pressures end 4-20, so up to sideways til then.

 

Metals

COPPER_ has broken the previous lows and signaling the lower target of 3.44.
the downward pressures of time start next week and will add to the selling.
Time pressures are down thru the first week in May.
a trade above 3.63 is required to restart the move up.

GOLD_  cross currents here. the 1614 target down was met and the trade is now up to test the long entry price at 1679.
time pressures have turned up. trade pressures have turned up.

SILVER_ in the trade down to 27.75.
but time pressures have turned up.
a trade above 33.88 is required to start a new move up.

S&P Futures

Monthly pressures remain up. weekly pressures have reached overbot.
Upside targets are 1424, 1442, 1510, 1532, 1537.

the time pressures have turned down and this cycle ends 4/20.

a move down thru 1367 signals a new move down.

 

US$ (DX)

the dollar is in the move up from 80.10 with the next target up of 82.66.

a move below 79.49 will signal weakness and a possible move down.
the trade pressures are reaching overbot.

the Euro has traded thru a long entry price of 1.3232, the next target is 1.3548.
with a stop at 1.3017 .