Author: Charlie

S&P Futures

The weekly is in a downtrend and the daily is in a move up inside that down trend.
the daily is above the moving average.

weekly time and trade pressures are up. the weekly target down is 1242.
a move above 1340 is the long entry to test the recent highs and then 1478.

the daily is in the long trade up to 1431.
a close down below 1320 would signal a test of the recent lows.

[BAC update: traded above the long entry price of 7.93.  in a pull back toward the 7.42 moving average.
expect the second time thru should start the move up.]

US$ (dx)

USD_ in the move down to 80.32.  time pressures are still down but trade pressures indicating a possible short cycle move up.
the long entry would be a close above 82.58.   But the target should only be to 83.45.

EURO_  the euro fx shows a long entry at 1.2605.
the currency move would suggest the long weary negotiations in the EU may be bearing some fruit.

If the long entry fails, then a move below 1.2498 will be the short entry to 1.2071.

the metals and these currencies are usually reciprocals of one another.

TBONDS_ traded up to the final target of 152-30 and reversed the next bar.
a trade below Friday’s close should signal a test of 145-10 and then 140-26.

what is this?  money coming out of the defensive trade? it appears so.
If  the USD goes up and the TBonds come down; then the flow of funds is likely into equities.

Crude Oil (wti)

CRUDE_  Weekly in the move down to 68.31.

However the Daily trade pressures are oversold and showing some divergences here at the lows;
so be alert for a corrective move up to 86.70.

NAT GAS_ setting up for a correction to the upside.
While the weekly is still in the down move, the Daily trade thru 2.35 was the long entry price for a 2.93 target.
3.51 is the weekly long entry.  so if that is reached, would expect a pullback at that point before moving back thru and on to the 5.90 target.

 

 

Metals

All metals seem exposed to a big drop.

COPPER_ in a down trend on the weekly and an uptrend on the daily.
downside targets are 3.21, 3.15 and 2.58.
a move above the entry price of 3.42 is required to get the long trade going again.

GOLD_ the buying pressures are about to turn down. trade pressures are already down.
any break of the recent lows at 1557 would signal a move down to 1437.

need a move above 1593 to signal a move up.

SILVER_ experiencing the same downward pressures as gold.
a break of 26.72 will set the downside target of 19.20.

need to move above 29.56 to start a new move up.

S&P Futures

S&P_ the Bank funds provided to the Spanish banks has sent the futures up to the 1342.50 target.
expect some consolidation and perhaps some retracemnt here (perhaps to 1326), and then an attempt to move up to the 1396 target.

Trade and time pressures are up.

a move below 1306 would signal a new move down to 1192.

[Bank of America long entry price 7.94, with a target to 9.92. place stop below the 6.72 low.]

US$ (dx)

USD_ the Time and Trade pressures have turned down.
the short entry price is 83.21 with a target of 80.32.
this is a retracement move not a long term move down.

a move above 83.50 would restart the move up.

Crude Oil wti

CRUDE_ Time pressures are down til November 9th.
Trade pressures are oversold and ready to turn up for a short move up.

traded down and thru all targets. the next target down is 79.17 and then 68.31.
a retracement move up has begun with the trade thru 84.71 with a target up to 90.35 then 96.

 

Metals

Sunday nite – Spain is granted 125B euros as bank recap funds

COPPER_ up 8 cents, moving up on the second leg to the long entry price of 3.4273.
time pressure remain down thru June 25th. trade pressures have turned up.
next target up is 3.71. stops at 3.21

GOLD_ just entered upward time pressures on June 1st. 1593 was the long entry price. 1691 is the next target up.
1527 is the stop.  still have a short target of 1515.
Hard to see what moves gold up while the Euro crisis eases.

SILVER_ has traded down to the short target of 27.76. and the stops below that level were tested .
the first move up to the long entry of 29.56 was completed. the pullback from there has setup the second leg up.
Time and trade pressures are up.

S&P Futures

WEEKLY_ stiil in the sell to 1248, with time pressures down thru late july.

DAILY_ in the trade up from 1309 to the first target of 1341.
shorter time cycles are up and the trade pressures have turned up.
the 1287 low is the stop, but a trade below1319 and back up would be very healthy.

the dollar is extended up and any USD move down will rally the equities.
the equity market would rally on any relief in the Euro, so watch that market also.

US$ (DX)

USD_ meeting expected targets of 82.66. next target is weekly 83.37.
however, the pressures are all extended up and suggest a correction.

a close below 81.81 could start a correction to 80.35.