Author: Charlie

S&P futures

the monthly and weekly are still in the move up. the next target up is 1456-1478.

the daily is in the move down to 1386.  today’s close of 1397 is a test of last week’s low.
a move below that could set up a quick move down.

the key is the Euro, any indication from the ECB that they will act ot stabilize European interest rates by buying sovereign bonds would set a new rally in motion.  this is also the last quarter for the under-performing hedge funds to make an improvements on their 2012 returns. So, what ever the move is to be; it should be exaggerated.

So, while it is much better to trade what is, rather than what should be, the most likely scenario “should” be a decline as the fed speeches indicate no more FED QE3, only to be followed later with some ECB bond buying which should generate a rally into the election.

please remember that QE3 and ECB bond buying are not adding Net New Financial assets to the private system, they are replacing the existing bonds with cash.  the cash would shore up financial system reserves and not necessarily result in more lending. so not inflationary. this means don’t chase the metals, be ready to take profits in them as the market moves them up on the initial “QE3/ECB” trade.

US$

USD_ has traded down thru the 81.61 target , the next target down is 80.70.

a move up thru 81.89 could start a retracement move up to 83.

30yr BOND_ in the retracement up. has met the first target of 149-02. the next target up is 151-19.

a move down thru 148-25 would signal a resumption of the move down, first target is  145-20.

Crude and Gas

CRUDE_ WTI continues to consolidate around the 94.85 target. pulling back to the 93 level.
then a move back above 96.55 should restart the move up to 102.

 

NAT GAS_ traded down to the 2.62 target and has retested that target again. 2.45 is the next target down.
a new move up would be signaled by a trade thru 2.85.

Metals

COPPER_ starts to show life on the upside. made the move to the first leg target of 3.48.  now in a pullback.
a move back thru 3.48 should start a new move up.

GOLD_ in the uptrend, and has made the move to the 1664 target. now showing price extended, and expect a pullback, perhaps to 1630.
1734 is the next target on the upside.

SILVER_ in the uptrend.  the shortterm target of 30.81 has caused some consolidation and possible retracement ot 28.78.
a move up thru 31.34 would resume the move up to the 32.78 target.

S&P Futures

S&P monthly and weekly remain in the uptrend.
Daily has moved into a downtrend.
the new high and then a reversal at the close yesterday is troubling for the longs.

a daily close below 1407 will start a new move down.
the first target is 1380.

a move above the previous highs will signal a new move up to the 1430-1440 area.

the FEZ and FXI ETF’s are indicators of Europe and China, respectively.

FEZ has had a nice move up and is at target; expect consolidation.
can trade this thru the currency futures.

FXI had a similar move up and has now entered into a short trade to 33.59.
however the downward pressures seem to be expended, so be alert for a new move up.
watch copper and FCX as proxies for this FXI index

US$

USD_ remains in the downtrend.
has traded down to and thru the 81.90 target with the next target down of 80.40.

need a trade above 82.144 to restart a move up.

30YR BOND_ traded down thru the 146-02 target to the 127% retracement of 145-04.
now in a retracement up of that move down, expected to reach the target of 149-04. then look for a new short trade.

Crude Oil / Nat Gas

CRUDE_ in the weekly move from 85.48 to 98.70.

in the daily move up from 90.54 to the 96.51.   target next target up is 103.50.
a close down thru 90.87 would start a new move down.

NAT GAS_  a trade above 2.85 would signal a new move up. the stop is 2.60

upper time frame pressures are still down, but trend is still up.

Metals

COPPER_ putting a in a bottom on the longer term charts. the weekly is showing divergences.
3.47 is a long entry, but will run into a shorter term target so wait for the pullback and try the re-entry.

GOLD_ have been in a no trade position for some time but the channel breakout was today with a close above the channel.
next target up is 1664.

SILVER_ has been waiting for the long entry of 28.60.
reached that yesterday and had a very nice follow-thru today.
the next upside target is 32.78.
stop at 27.72.

S&P futures

S&P 500_ long term pressure remain up. the 1404 target should produce some consolidation and perhaps a retracement.
time pressures are now down thru the end of August.

the intraday pressures are still up with a short term target of 1406 on Sunday nite.
after a test of the 1413 recent high, 1431 is the next target up.

would need a move below 1367 to start a new move down into the low 1300’s.

US$ (DX)

USD_ had reached the upside target of 83.81 two weeks ago. this recent turn down has allowed the S&P to make the move to new highs.
the current daily pressures are down thru the end of September, but are beginning to be extended.
the next move is likely to be up and would need a trade above 83.82.

30 YR BOND_ in the trade down from 150-19. the next target is 146-02.
a trade above 149-03 would start a retracement up to 149-26 and could be the set up a new short entry.