Author: Charlie

Oil and Gas

CRUDE_ long term and daily pressures are up. traded up to the long entry price of 89.13.
next target is 97.35.

Lots of event risk here. 82.07 target on the downside is still active.

NAT GAS_ has traded back up thru the 3.66 long entry after consolidating below the short term down move’s first target
and touched the old long term entry price of 3.45 then move up from there.
the next target up is 3.38.

all pressures are up.

3.30 is the next target down, but would need a trade down thru last weeks lows to get that started.

Metals

COPPER_ traded up to the long entry price today.
upper time frame pressures still down so expect a pullback and then a second try.
the first target up is 3.73

this is a corrective move up inside a longer term down move.
the next target down remains 3.21

GOLD_ the 1723 long entry price has been penetrated for the second time.
the first target up is 1802.

upper time frame pressures are down, so this move up should be muted.
the remaining target down is 1652.

SILVER_ silver has been trading above its long entry price of 32.06 for about a week.
the next target up is 33.91.

of the metals silver look the most likely to continue up.
place stops at the 30.71 downside target.

S&P Futures

S&P_ the monthly closed into a downtrend. the weekly trade has closed at the 1368 target.
price is above critical moving averages and the pressures are near the over bot levels, suggesting some relief from this move down.

the daily trade is down but at the 1365 target.  expect consolidation and a possible move up.
a trade up through 1415 would signal a new move up.
a shorter cycle trade up through 1382 would test that longer cycle entry price.

a failure of this 1365 support level would quickly send the market down to 1324.

US$

USD (DX)_ the DX is the up-move to 81.58.
expect resistance here at the 81.175 level.

a move down thru 80.12 would signal a lower Dx and a higher stock market.

30YR T-Bond_ at the upside target of 151-28. pressures still rising so consolidation and then a new move.

a move down thru 151-08 would start a correction down to 148-01.

Oil and Gas

CRUDE_ the long term move is up from the 86.08 long entry. now in a pullback inside that longer term uptrend.
the next target down remains the 82.07 level.

all pressures are extended down.  need a move up thru 89.13 to restart the move up.

NAT GAS_ in a correction down inside a longer term move up.  the long cycle upside target is 4.365.

the short term down move target is 3.305.

Metals

COPPER_ up 2 cents today. still in the move down, consolidating around the 3.45 downside target.
pressures remain down and the next target down is 3.22.

a move up thru 3.52 would restart the move up.

watch the FXI index of Chinese 25 blue chip stocks for clues.

GOLD_ gold has moved up thru the long entry price of 1723.
the next target up is 1802. slow going as the upper time frame pressures are still down.

a move down thru the lows of 1675 would cancel the long trade.

SILVER_ also in the new long trade from 32.05.
the next target up is 34.06. upper time frame pressures remain down so limited upside for now.

the 30.71 downside target has acted as support, any failure of that support would send silver down to the next 27.77 downside target.

S&P Futures

S&P monthly trade remains in the uptrend, the weekly remains in the downtrend.
Election confusion?

the Daily trend crossed over to a bullish trend on Nov 2nd.
a trade back down into the bearish trade would setup a new move down to 1376.

But for now, the technicals are in the long trade from 1413 to the 1442 target.
a trade below the 1393 low will cancel the long trade.

Intraday, 60 min _ this reversal is worrisome,
and has produced a short trade signal with a target down to 1390 which breaks the 1393 lows.
this would run some stops and could produce a sell off to the 1364 target.

[Nov 7, 2012 Update]

the trade below 1393 has triggered those stops.
the next test is the Sep lows of 1387.

the current downside targets are 1376 and 1364

it will take a reversal above 1407 to stop this momentum down

US$

USD_ the Dx has traded up to and thru the 80.40 target.
the next target up is 81.58. the weekly crosses to up next week.

however, the buying pressures are fully extended, so the short term target up of 81.17 may be the end of the move up.
a trade down thru 79.30 would start a new move down to 77.206.

30yr T-Bonds_ weekly in a side ways channel between 144 and 154 with a slight downward bias.

The Daily trade is down to 145, with a retracement trade up inside that downward move.
expect the down trade to resume after testing 149-19 on the upside.

Oil and Gas

CRUDE (wti)_ still in the move down to 82.07.
need a trade above 89.96 to start a new move up.

NAT GAS_ weekly is testing the 3.55 downside target. next target down is 3.31.
all pressures remain down.

should cross into a bullish pressures next week.

Metals

COPPER_ weekly trend has turned down.

the daily trade remains down to the 3.45 target.
the daily is approaching the uptrend line. a move up thru 3.61 would signal the new move up.

GOLD_ moved down thru the 1707 target, moving to the next target down – 1652.
Long term pressures are down thru the end of Jan 2013.

a move above 1723 is required to start a new move up.
the selling pressures are indicating a possible retracement move up.

SILVER_ failed to trigger a new move up and has turned down to the 30.71 target.
the next target down is 27.78.

but the selling pressures are very extended, so tight stops.
the new long entry is 32.05.