Author: Charlie

S&P Futures

the multiple Monthly targets [1502,1517, 1526] are providing resistance.
monthly time pressures are down thru the end of march.

the weekly target of 1513 is providing resistance as well.
the time pressures should turn down from here into April.

the Daily trade remains up, but with signs of slowing momentum.
the next target up is 1564.

the hourly trade signal shows a bearish move down to 1505. but that is not enough to produce a new Daily short trade.
a move below 1491   1499 would be required to start a new Daily short trade.

US$

the dollar and the T-Bonds are a measure of the other market expectations.

as the dollar rises the value of the other currencies and our equity markets have downward pressures.
the precious metals markets are also affected; we see the golds markets very weak.
and with continued upward pressure on the dollar more weakness can be expected.

USD_ the DX is consolidating around the first target up from the long entry price of 79.53.
time pressures are down and trade pressures are up.

the next target up is 81.70.

support remains at the 79.02 weekly lows

 

If weakness in the equity markets are expected, then the flow of funds will move toward the debt markets again.

T-BONDS_ reaching an over sold position. the next target down is at 141-09 to 141-29.

a close above 143-23 would trigger a retracement up to 145-08.

Oil and Gas

CRUDE_ in the uptrend from the 90.25 long entry price.
consolidating at the 98.35 target. the next target up is 107.02.

time pressures are down until the last week of February. trade pressures are down.

a close below 94.21 would trigger a new short entry.

NAT GAS_ had moved up to the 4.24 resistance point and had begun a retracement down to the 3.064 target.
the trade pressures are now oversold, and a reversal is expected.
a move up thru 3.41 would trigger a new long entry.
this expected move up is still a retracement inside the longer move down.
so, the target is 3.60.

Metals

COPPER_ has moved up and out of the quarterly channel.
Time pressures are up. Trade pressures are up.

the Daily trade is up from 3.54.  the 3.75 target has been reached and is acting as resistance.
Consolidation and retracement likely.  3.70 is support.
a close below 3.68 will signal a new down move.

[2/19 Update: the copper trade is now down. next Target down is 3.52]

GOLD_ Both Gold and Silver headed lower perhaps testing the April 2011 lows.
Gold has broken down thru the 1670 support. the next target lower is 1569.

[2/20 update: the 1569 target has been exceeded, setting up the next 1523 target down.]

resistance at 1655. need a trade above 1668 to suggest any retracement move up.
the intraday suggests a small bounce before a renewed move down.

SILVER_ is sitting on support at the 29.51 target.
both time and trade pressures are down.
the next target down is 27.66.

a trade above last weeks high would be a good place for a stop placement.

S&P Futures

GDP = C + I + G  + (X-M)  or,

-0.1% = 1.52% + -0.08% + -1.33% + -0.25% 

S&P_ the futures have trade up to the monthly target of 1502 and met resistance.
1513 is the next target up.

the daily has crossed into bearish pressure with the close last night of 1493.75.
will need a close above 1506 to reverse the pressures.

a down move won’t be signaled until 1475. but this does suggest the monthly target will generate at least consolidation.

the intraday hourly has traded down to its target and is now consolidating. we will see the next move originate there.

US$

Need to pay attention to the dollar as it appears over sold and could easily make a new move up.
a Dollar move up would put pressure on the equity markets, also the metals and currencies.

a move up thru 79.42 would signal the long entry.

a failure to hold the 79 level sets up the downside target of 75.45.

30YR T-BONDS_ traded down and thru the the 143-01 target and is consolidating here.
141-19 is the next target down.

a retracement up would occur with a trade up thru 144-05.

Oil and Gas

CRUDE_ traded up to 98.25 near the 98.35 target and is showing resistance here.
the next target up is 107.47.

a move down thru 94.21 will start the next down move.

NAT GAS_ in the long trade up from 3.41. the next target up is 3.93.
the daily is in a correction down and may test the 3.11 low.

the pressures are indicating the down move is almost over.
a trade back up thru the long entry price could begin the new upmove.

Metals

COPPER_  neutral to upward bias, but always a good China indicator.   trading between 3.25 and 4.00.
next target up is 3.85.

a break below 3.52 would signal a change in direction.

GOLD_ long term has been in a sideways move since late 2012.
the trade is neutral to down. the 1670 pivot is likely to determine direction.

the short time pressures are down. the next target down is 1617.

a move up thru 1699 would signal higher to 1753.

SILVER_ long term move is similar to gold, side ways in a channel. the Daily is in the trade up from 30.55 nad has met the first target.
the next target up is 33.41.

a move below 30.76 would reverse the trade.

S&P Futures

the monthly upmove is very near the two targets 1496-1517.

the weekly upmove has a 1513 target.

the Daily upmove has a 1496 target.

all time frame trade pressures are extended on the upside.
the time pressures are down thru the end of March.

a move down thru 1469 will signal lower. a trade down thru 1456 would setup the 1407 target,

US$

USD_ trading along the 79.016 target level. the trade pressures are turning up.
in the long trade from the 79.66 long entry. the first target of 80.74 was reached and a pullback has put the move back to the long entry price.
a turn up of the trade pressures should allow the long trade to resume.

30YR T-BONDS_ the trade pressures remain down.
the daily trade reached the extended target down and reversed into a retracement up at 144-31.
the next target up is 147-09.

a close below 145-12 would stop out the long trade and signal lower.