Author: Charlie

S&P futures

Monthly remains bullish and pressures up. next target up is 1600.75

Weekly is bearish with pressures up , but near an inflection point. next target up is 1605.50

Daily is bullish and pressures are up.  But the actual daily trade is down until the 1593 high is taken out.
the next target down remains 1514.

 

COMMENT:
the Metals are showing downward pressures.
the currencies are showing up against the dollar.
the FEZ ETF of European stocks is slightly bullish,
the Chinese ETF, the FXI, is also indicating a bullish trade up.
there is news talk of the Euro needing to devalue in order to become price competitive,
and there is some recognition that the ECB may have to relax the austerity measures which then would pressure the EURO.
so, long the FEZ, or short the EURO.

a decline in the EURO has usually been accompanied by a decline in the S&P. so a move to resolve the EURO may be the trigger for our market correction.

US$

USD (dx) the dollar is confusing. caught in the side ways channel between 81.83 and 83.52.

weekly could turn bearish with a close below 82.07 which could test 80 again.

Daily is starting in bearish mode with trade pressures down.
next target down is 81.58.

US 30YR T_BONDS_ Monthly is bearish. weekly is bullish. weekly pressure are up but extended.

Daily has traded up thru the 148-20 target. next target up is 151-03.
a trade down thru 146-31 would start a new move down to 144-22.

EURO Futures_   pressures are up, but both weekly and daily are bearish.
next target up is 1.3392.

a move down thru 1.2980 could signal a move to 1.2610.

 

 

Oil and Gas

CRUDE_ weekly is bearish, pressure are down.
the next target down is 81.58.

Daily is bullish, pressures are up. the daily trade is up from 89.03 to 94.10.
the pressures are over bot, meeting resistance here at the 94.10 target.

a move down thru 91.01 would start the move down to 82.37.

 

Nat Gas_ weekly bullish and in the move up from 3.51 to 4.55.
pressures are up and looking over bot.

Daily is bearish and pressures down.  a retracement trade down has begun to the 3.85 target.

 

Metals

COPPER_ in the move down from 3.6850. have met the first target down of 3.09.
weekly is bearish, pressures down.
Daily in a retracement up, pressures are crossing up.
the first target up of 3.29 was met and acted as resistance. next target down is 3.03.
then 2.86.

GOLD_ retracing after the spike down to 1338.
the first target up of 1474 has been met and is acting as Resistance.

weekly remains bearish, but pressures are turning up. the next target up is 1568.
daily has turned bullish, but the move up is over bot.  a move down thru 1421 restarts the move down.

volatility exceeds the stops, so too much risk.

SILVER_ in the trade down to the weekly 19.58 target.
weekly is bearish, pressures are down
the daily trade is consolidating around the 23.24 targets.
Daily is bullish, pressures are up. 24.17 is the long entry for a retracement up.

 

 

S&P futures

Monthly, Weekly_ the prior 1600-1605 targets have been met.  expect consolidation here.

pressures remain up, the 4/26 change in direction timing remains in place.

a weekly trade below 1557 would signal a retracement to 1498 and then perhaps to the old July 2012 pivot high.

the Daily trade is up from the 1511 long entry and has traded thru the 1568 target signaling higher.
the next target up is 1623.

short term pressures are down, a trade down thru 1562 could set a retracement down to 1514 in motion.

[update wed 4/17: made a move down to the short cycle target of 1540, followed buy a retracement up to 68% of this move down.
now a new short cycle move down has triggered at 1558, to the 1537 downside target.
1514 target is still active.]

US$

USD_ (DX) in the consolidation move sideways.
technically, still in the long trade from 82.82, however a test of the stop at 81.83 is nearby.

pressures are down.

a move down thru 82.17 signals lower to 79,96.

 

30YR T_BOND_ weekly pressures up, daily pressures up.

the daily trade is short and the first target down to 145-17 has been met.

the retracement up has moved past the 61% and signals higher to retest the recent high and perhaps the 148-20 target.

still looking for a long term short opportunity.

 

Oil and Gas

CRUDE _ Monday Morning and the futures are down 2.50 to the 86.30 target.
the next target down is 82.95.

trade pressures and time pressures remain down.

would need a trade above 91.20 to start a retracement up.

 

NAT GAS_ has traded thru the the first upside target of 4.035, signaling higher to the 4.55.

trade pressures are up, the 4.03 level should act as support.

a move below that level would signal a retracement down to 3.68.

Metals

COPPER_ Long term pressures are still down, but showing some divergences.

the weekly trade next target down is 3.08.

The daily trade is up after trading thru the long entry of 3.39. But near the stop of 3.306, so be careful.
seems to be a china trade just now.

need a trade back thru the 3.39 to reconfirm.

 

GOLD_ Big move down last week. the Daily long entry of 1597 was not reached and failed.
the short trade closed below the multiple targets at the 1528 level.

the long term supports at 1506 have failed. should see some attempt to push back above them.
if that retracement fails, the next weekly target down is 1452. if 1452 fails then 1393 is the further target down.

Daily pressures are down. need a move above 1543 before a new up-move can start.

[monday update: all downside targets met in the overnight and in the pre-market. the next target down is 1210-1215.
all pressures remain down.]

SILVER_ silver has traded down to the 26.26 target and has taken out the 26.08 lows of June 2012.
the next weekly target down is 19.21.

The next daily target down is 24.79.

need a trade above 27.98 to get a new up-move started.

[update: the 24.79 target was breached, now sitting on the 23.24 target. the 19.21 weekly target is the next one down.]

S&P futures

Monthly and weekly targets are 1600-1605.
a trade down thru 1528 is the weekly short entry.

the Daily trade is down.  price is below MACD.
the Daily short entry of 1537 was tested but the close was back above.
the next trade back thru thru should set the downside in motion.

the next target down is 1489.05.

a trade above 1555 would negate this move down and reset the the 1567 target.

US$

USD (DX)_ trade pressures remain up.

have met the 83.42 upside target and is now in consolidation waiting for the new signal.

the next target up is 83.66.

the next short entry is 82.17.

 

30yr TBONDS_
in the move up to 148-17. perhaps to test the 149-18 high.

pressures are showing divergences, so a move down is likely.

the short entry is 147-07.