Author: Charlie

S&P futures

Monthly_ long at the 1812 target. pressures remain up.
Weekly_ long at the 1806 target, the next target up is 1847. Pressures remain up.

Daily_ short, the 1784 short entry was tested once and the second time thru was it. the next target down is 1751.
the market was very near and has moved up off that target area.
a trade above the 1790 resistance would signal higher.

the final target is 1718. [a 5% retracement.]

[Wed 12/18 FED day update:
the tapering announcement coupled with the promise of lower rates send the market back to the highs.
this rejects the short entry price and any new high signals higher to the weekly targets.]

US $

USD_ the DX has made a move down from the 84 level to 79.22 and is now attempting a new move up thru the 81.33
long entry.
the daily is long from 80.22 long entry and is touching the 1st target of 81.88.
a retracement from that target has occurred with a move down thru 80.81 with the next target near the 79.30 low.

30YR T-bonds_ looks very much like the dollar (DX); a long move down a retracement up and now a resumption of the move down.

the daily trade is in a long trade from the long entry of 129-02, has met the 1st target of 132-19.
a new internal move down has been triggered at 129-27 with a target of 122-20.
the low of 126-29 will be tested as support before the long trade can be exited.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ in the longer term uptrade to the top of the channel of 116.
the shorter cycle took the weekly down near the 91.02 target.
Now crude is attempting to start a new move up from the 98.20 long entry.

the daily trade is long from 96.43, the next target up is 103.96.

a move down thru 94.23 is a signal for lower.

NAT GAS_ has made a significant move up from the 3.68 long entry
and is now testing the 1st target of 4.35.  The next target up is 4.96.

a move down thru 4.20 signals lower.

Metals

COPPER_ attempting a weekly breakout to the upside. at the interim target of 3.34.
Daily pressures are up. the long entry was 3.23. the next target is 3.37.

a failure to break above the down sloping trend-line will signal weakness.
a move down thru 3.25 will signal lower.

GOLD_ remains in this leg down from the short entry of 1376. the next target down is 1191.
there are multiple targets in the 1126-1142 range.  This looks to be an area of significant support.

the Daily trade is consolidating around this 1206 low. still pressing down.

would need a trade above 1269 to start a move up.

SILVER_ weekly pressures remain down but a retest of the 18.35 support is in progress.
a failure to hold sets up the next target down of 16.25.

The daily trade is setting up for a move thru the 20.52 long entry price.

S&P futures

Monthly and Weekly pressures remain up. the next target up is 1812.
the prior weeks high was taken out rather handily

the Daily trade is up and the next target is 1797. While pressures remain up, this are divergences forming,
suggesting time for a break in this move up.

a move down thru 1775 will signal a new move down.

[update 11/21: price traded down to the short entry and has now moved up to the 1797 target.
again, the second time thru this short entry is decisive.]

US $

USD_ the DX is moving up off the 78.94 level. the next target up is 81.74.

a move down thru 80.64 would likely retext these lows.

 

30yr T-Bonds_ in a correction down of a longer cycle move up. the next target dow is 124-08.
the 128-14 low will act as support.

the next target up is 141-00.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ in the move down to 88.78.
need a move up thru 97.73 to restart a new move up.

NAT GAS_ has met the 3.42 downside target and is trending upward. This also the lower channel boundary.
pressures are up.

a trade up thru the 3.68 level should set up the 3.77 target on the way to test the upper channel boundary.

Metals

COPPER_ has broken down thru the lower boundary of the channel.
the 3.16 target is acting as support, but the momentum is down.

the next target down is 3.042.

a move up thru 3.22 would restart a move up.

GOLD_ in the move down, the next target down is 1248.

need a move up thru 1311 to reverse the trend.

SILVER_ the trade below the 20.63 low stops out the long trade.
18.58 is a long cycle target that is still active.

neutral until a new signal develops.

S&P Futures

Monthly – at the 1767 target. 1812 is the next target up.
Weekly – also consolidating . showing downward time pressures thru early 2014.

Daily – in the long trade from 1665. the 1746 target had been met and now is acting as support.
the next target up is 1797.

a move below 1752 would signal a move lower. the market closed below 1752 last week then reversed the next day to close above.
nevertheless, the indication is there. the second time down and thru is likely to be decisive.
if so, then the first target down is 1719.

1773 is the recent high and seems to provide some resistance these last five days.

US $$

USD_ the DX had moved down as the FED tapering was postponed and
now upward pressures appear as the European ECB acts to lower interest rates.

the lower 78.85 target was almost met. now in a new move up from 80.07.
the next target up is 81.74.

upper pressures are neutral.

30 yr T-BOND_ the longer cycle weekly is still in a move up. while the daily trade is just touching a short entry.
watch closely to see how price behaves here.

pressures are down.