Author: Charlie

S&P Futures

Monthly remains bullish with an 1853 target.

Weekly has traded thru the short entry but has not yet closed below the 1779 price.

The Daily is long.  the long entry for the new move up was 1782. the next target is 1863.
there is a number of resistance areas around the 1801 level. these may be enough to stop the new move up.

The daily had traded down to the 1732 level, but did not meet the 1720 target.
look for that to be tested with any new move down.

Update 2/12: the 1801 level and the 61.8% had no impact. this opens the move up to the 1863 target and then the 127% retracement of 1874.
the 1846 high will be the next test of resistance.

a break below yesterday’s low at 1793 will signal lower.

US $$

USD_ the DX
the weekly is trying to get thru the 81.33 long entry, pressures are still down, but rising.

the daily trade is still long, but consolidating around the 81.05 target. pressures are up but declining.

 

30 YR T-Bonds_ weekly pressure are up, daily pressures have turned down.

weekly still long.

the Daily Trade is completed after reaching the 134-20 target. Pressures are down, in a retracement ,

Oil and Gas

CRUDE_ at the 100.20 target.

expect consolidation and or retracement.
a break above the 100.90 pivot would set the 104.54 target.

a trade down below 98.09 would start a new move down to 94.50.

 

Nat GAS_ too volatile. no trade.

in the 4.60-5.40 bar range.

 

Metals

COPPER_ weekly in the 3.12 -3.43 channel.
Daily still in bearish territory, but could crossover with a move thru the long entry price of 3.24.

the first target up will 3.34. (each futures contract is for 25,000 lbs, so each penny represents a $250 move)
stops at the 3.17 low.

GOLD_ not much change.

the weekly making the double bottom. pressures are still down.
the Daily trade is still long from the 1241 entry, but the upper time-frame pressures are not letting the move gain any momentum.

a trade below the 1181 low is the stop.

SILVER_ unchanged, No trade.  the pivot point between bearish and bullish is the Daily long entry price of 20.52.

S&P futures

Monthly remains bullish until a break below 1662.

Weekly in a short trade after the close below 1779. the target down is 1666.

The Daily trade is short from the 1815 short entry. 1719 is the next target down.
trade pressures are oversold.
time pressures are down til the 24th of Feb.

— need a move above 1784 to restart the move up.
looks to be difficult.  at 1784, the talking heads will be pointing to a “developing head and shoulders pattern”,
but if the market can grind to a close above 1802, that could be enough to set a new direction.

not going to be easy this time.

US $$

USD_ the DX is at the weekly long entry price of 81.33. pressures are up.

the daily trade is still long from the 80.09 entry and consolidating around the first target of 81.05.
a close above 81.29 should start the dollar moving higher once more to a 81.64 target.

a break below 81.05 would test the prior 80.51 low.

30YR T-Bond_ the weekly is long from 131-26. the next target up is 139-16.
the Daily trade is long but at the final target of 134-20; so expect consolidation or a pullback here.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ long from the daily 93.40 entry and has traded thru the 96.88 target, which is now acting as support.
the next target up is 100.20.

a trade below 96.37 could start a new move down to 92.83.

NAT GAS_ did everything that was expected. the 5.10 target has provided resistance.
price spiked thru that allowing for a nice stop at the 4.80 old high.

currently trading between 4.98 and 5.45.  volatility very high -no trade.

Metals

COPPER_ the China PMI decline has stopped copper. the May and Aug 2013 highs were tested and provided resistance.
the move down from the 3.36 short entry is almost complete.
the next target down is 3.15 with a possibility of the 2.98 target rising.

need a trade above 3.24 to start a new move up.

GOLD_ still in the long trade from 1241. the next target is 1336.
pressures have turned down and price is struggling.

a move down thru the 1881 stop would start a new short.

SILVER_ never triggered the long entry and now is testing the lower channel bounded by 18.90.
the next target down is 18.62.

the long entry remains 20.52

S&P Futures

Monthly – the 1853 target slightly above the 1846.50 high. pressures extended up time cycles pressing down.

Weekly- near the 1851 target. pressures up. the short entry price for the weekly is 1781.

the prior short entry was taken out with the new long entry at 1831.
the old high was tested and now the new short entry is active.
the Daily trade is short from 1825 today.

the next target down is 1796 which will take out the recent 1810 lows.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[update Friday Jan 24 close] closed well below the 1796 target.
next target down is 1759, where buying should come in from the shorts covering.
Then the next move should start after some consolidation.

the next target down after 1759 is 1705.

Need a close above today’s high to restart any new up move.

US $$

USD_ the DX has ranged between 79-97 over the years since 2005. currently at 80.69; so much for QE trashing the Dollar?

Monthly pressures are up.
weekly pressures are up. long entry nearby.
The daily trade is long from 80.49 with a target of 82.25/

stops at 79.85/

30yr T_Bonds_ Monthly is in the long term down move. pressures remain down.
Weekly pressures are turning up. the recent low is higher than the prior low

the Daily trade is long from 120-15, with a target of 132-04 which is met this morning. the next target up is 134-24.

stops at 127-27.