CRUDE_ hard to distinguish between geopolitical and actual supply and demand pressures. lots of chop between $80 and $110.
currently trading up off the 89.98 downside target.
Now Long from the 96.37 entry price the next target up is 106.37.
a move below 96.55 signals lower.
NAT GAS_ so the cold weather rally was perhaps more a Ukranian rally?
in a long consolidation between 4.06 and 4.79 with no indication of direction just yet.
COPPER_ reached the 2.92 downside target then retraced from there to the daily upside target of 3.04.
still in the overall downtrend, this 3.04 target is acting as resistance.
need a move above 3.05 to resume the uptrend to the 3.12 target.
a move below 2.99 restarts the move down to 2.88
GOLD_ a longer term double bottom is in place at the 1180-1190 support;
appears to be in a trading range between there and the 1400 area.
In a move down from 1328 to the 1234 target. need a move up thru 1326 to start the move up to 1405.
SILVER_ bottomed at the 18.31 down target. long from the 21.03 entry, traded up to the 25.37 target.
in the retracement down to a retest of the lows and has started a new move up from the same long entry of 21.03.
the next target up is 25.38.
stops at the 18.94 lows.
Monthly – the 1853 target is acting as resistance.
Weekly – the next target up is 1897. the move down will be confirmed with a move below the 1797 level.
Daily – the daily trade is still long, but the high of friday tested the 1864 target and pulled back.
the short entry is nearby at 1840. if triggered then the target is the 1800 level.
pressures are extended up {overbot} and need some time to resolve.
These projections based on a time series may seem a bit arcane.
But if one thinks of the price action as embodying the information held by, and the decisions made by, the market participants;
then this price action can be thought of as a derivative of fundamental information flow.
the index cycles roughly correspond to the quarterly information flow.
USD_ the DX rallied to the 81.31 long entry and has pulled back from there.
the pullback is targeting the 79.10 lows
30yr T-Bonds_ the 30 yr was consolidating at the 133-09 target.
the Russian news sent it up thru towards the 134-19 target. have to see if this holds.
CRUDE_ still in the move up from the 97.22 long entry. met the 103.17 target and today Ukrainian event send crude up sharply.
the next target up is the 107 -107-50 area.
NAT GAS_ nat gas on the other hand has not moved in response to the crisis.
still in retracement from the 5.45 target.
no trade.
COPPER_ remains in the weekly channel of 3.09 and 3.40.
the daily trade is a counter-trend trade down to the current price of 3.16 . The next target down is 3.07.
a move back thru 3.20 would restart the move up.
GOLD_ the move up off the 1191 low continues.
The Daily trade is up from the 1241 entry price of a few weeks ago. The next target up is 1388.
Stops are at 1237.
SILVER_ silver’s move up thru the 20.52 entry price has been muted. The next target is 23.15.
A move below 19.10 would stop out the long trade .
Monthly remains bullish with a 1853.75 target.
Weekly is testing the prior 1848.50 highs. pressures are down.
Daily is in the long trade from the 1782 entry.
the next target is 1863 with a test of the prior highs at 1846.50.
the 127 extension is at 1874 and is our likely target for this move up.
a trade down thru 1802 could signal failure of the move up and start a new move down.
USD_ the Dx sold off last week, the Euro rose, the metals rose and the S&P rose.
the weekly DX tested the long entry of 81.33 numerous times.
the daily trading in the channel between 79.50 and 81.74. Now in a move to the lower end of the channel.
a move above 80.23 could restart a move to the upside.
30YR T-Bonds_ weekly raded thru the long entry for the second time.
The daily traded up to the 134-30 target and is now pulling back to the previous 132-00 tagrget.
the next target up is 136-29.
a move down below 131-25 could signal lower.
CRUDE_ at the 100.20 target and the 100.90 pivot.
expect retracement and or consolidation.
the next target up is 106.20
a trade down thru 99.174 could start a move down.
NAT GAS_ the weekly spiked up to test the 5.79 target and closed below the 4.82 target.
the daily is trading be tween the 4.48 and the 5.48 pivots.
no trade.
COPPER_ the weekly pulled back from the first upside target at 3.37.
the daily has triggered a new move up at 3.24. pressures are up and the next target up is 3.34.
stops at the 3.12 low.
GOLD_ weekly in the retracement up after reaching the downside target of 1191. the 1434 pivot is the next resistance.
the daily trade is long from the 1241 entry , the next target is 1334-1336.
the 1237 level is the stop.
SILVER_ the weekly is long on the close above the 21.03.
the daily is long on the close above the 20.52 entry price.
18,90 is the stop price.