Author: Charlie

S&P Futures

Monthly_
still long consolidating at the 1853 target. pressures remain up.

Weekly_
short next target down is 1776. pressures remain up.

Daily_
Pressures are up. in the long trade from the 1842 entry price.
the next target is 1906. significant resistance at the old highs of 1892.50.

a close today (Friday into the weekend) below 1861 could start a new move down.
the next target down would then be 1827, then 1793.
the older unmet target of 1778 is just below that. and the weekly target is 1776.

geopolitical events can make this happen quickly.
but it is interesting that gold, that shiny rock of fear, does not suggest disaster.

US $$

USD_
the DX is spending a long time here in consolidation at the 79 lows. Must be waiting to see what the Euro does.
weekly pressures remain down to neutral. daily is slightly up.

trading between 79.375 and 80.770 with no directional bias.

30 YR T-BONDS_
both weekly and daily pressures are up.
daily remains in the long trade up from 130-16. next target up is 137-27.

a move down thru 133-23 would stop out the trade and look for a new short entry.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_

weekly pressures remain up, but the daily pressures have turned down.
the high of 104.075 did not quite meet  the expected price target of 104.56.

a trade back down to the 95-96 lows could be likely. need a trade below 98.45 to confirm.

NAT GAS_
the long entry was 4.67.  the weekly pressures are trying to turn up.

a trade back down thru 4.48 would set up a downside target of 3.92.

Again – this gas mkt is a very tough market to trade, use tight stops.

Metals

COPPER_
continuing the move up on two cycles after breaking out above the 3.07 pivot,
the next target up is 3.15-3.17.

weekly pressures are bottoming so, this move could have some impetus to reach the 3.29 target.

a move down thru the 3.04 level sets up a test of the 2.91 lows.

GOLD_
weekly pressures remain down.  daily pressures are up.
the daily trade is still down and has tested the 1277 level creating a double bottom in the short term
if that 1277 level fails then the next target down is 1234.

need a move 1325 to trigger a long entry to a 1405 target.

SILVER_
weekly pressures are down. daily pressures are turning up.

this is the third or fourth test of the 18.94 low. a failure sets up the 16.25 target.

need a move up thru the old long entry price of 20.54 to trigger the long entry. that target up would be 23.19

S&P Futures

Monthly_ still long with a 2223 target. 1761 is a recent target that should act as support.

Weekly_ has traded thru the 1823 short entry and is projecting a 1776 nearby target and a lower target at 1709.

Daily_ (which is the trading time frame)
had signaled a move down from 1865 and then triggered a second leg down from 1852 this last week.
so, now there is a lower low.
the 1805 target was almost touched on Friday with an intraday low of 1807.25.
the next target is 1778 with perhaps an excursion further down to 1767.

need a close above 1847 to turn the market long again.

lower mortgage originations took the bank prices down. could see the fed respond with lower rate talk.

US $$

USD_ the DX is not following thru on the long entry from 79.83, the move was stopped at the first target of 80.62.
and now has pulled back to test the 79.37 stop.

upper time frame pressures remain down. a break down below 79.24 could test 78.66.

30 Yr T-Bonds_ moving thru the recent 134-19 target signaling higher. next target nearby is 135–01.
after that test the next target up is 137-27 and 138-05.

a move below 133-11 would signal lower.

 

the euro is rising perhaps due to money flows out of the eastern bloc counties next to russia.
Treasuries also rise but most probably from funds flowing out of equities.

the lower US interest rates from these flows seem to stimulate a carry trade where borrowed US funds at these low rates go into Asian and Emerging Markets with higher rates.

Oil & Gas

CRUDE_ The 105 target is fast approaching. next is the 106.37 level and beyond that is a retest of the 111 high pivot.
move the stop up to the entry price.

a move below 99.30 would signal lower.

NAT GAS_ nat gas pressures are turning up. a new long entry is 4.67 with a stop below 4.22.
this is a high risk trade because of the prior volatility.

Metals

COPPER_ still in the consolidation around the 3.04 target.
the new long entry at 3.02 has bee triggered, but the 3.07 pivot needs to be taken out before the long risk is low enough.

GOLD_  the long entry remains 1326 which was touched but not triggered last week.
so, still in the move down to the 1234 target, but with buy stops at the 1326 level.  Probably best to stand aside til the long entry is triggered.

SILVER_ is in a side ways movement. expect it to follow gold.

 

Geopolitical and financial events can be the catalyst to any new move.
Russia makes a mistake, or the ECB lowers euro interest rates or begins a QE effort to lower the Euro currency?

S&P Futures

Monthly_

have reached the 1853 target. the next target up is 2223.
the old 1761 target has acted as support.

Weekly_

the 1863 target is reached. the next target up is 2098.
the weekly trend remains long until a trade below 1823.

Daily_ the trading time-frame.

the March 7th high of 1880 traded thru the 1868 target then produced some wide ranging consolidation.
a short trade was triggered at the 1851 level but had no follow thru and was stopped at the moving averages.
the excessive daily ranges would have precluded any trades

Last weeks low volume action traded thru the 1880 high but was unable to hold the level.

as the high beta stocks were sold,  the market moved back below the 1868 target.

technically the move is still long from the 1862 trade with 1919 as the next target up.
but the move down on Friday feels as tho the 1823 lows may be tested.

[Update: Wed 4/10,  is closing near these lows]

a move below the 1823 lows resumes the short trade to 1766. First target down is 1805.

 

 

 

US $

USD_ the DX has established  double bottom at the 79.25 downside target.

Has been in a sideways move since late october 2103.

the current trade is up from the 79.82 long entry price is now testing the 80.62 target
and is signaling higher to the next target up of 81.40.

stops at the lows.

30yr T-Bonds_    prices up, yields down.
have been in the long trade since the 127-31 long entry price at the beginning of the year.
the 133-19 target has been significant resistance.

volume studies suggest higher prices.