the monthly and weekly are still in the move up. the next target up is 1456-1478.

the daily is in the move down to 1386.  today’s close of 1397 is a test of last week’s low.
a move below that could set up a quick move down.

the key is the Euro, any indication from the ECB that they will act ot stabilize European interest rates by buying sovereign bonds would set a new rally in motion.  this is also the last quarter for the under-performing hedge funds to make an improvements on their 2012 returns. So, what ever the move is to be; it should be exaggerated.

So, while it is much better to trade what is, rather than what should be, the most likely scenario “should” be a decline as the fed speeches indicate no more FED QE3, only to be followed later with some ECB bond buying which should generate a rally into the election.

please remember that QE3 and ECB bond buying are not adding Net New Financial assets to the private system, they are replacing the existing bonds with cash.  the cash would shore up financial system reserves and not necessarily result in more lending. so not inflationary. this means don’t chase the metals, be ready to take profits in them as the market moves them up on the initial “QE3/ECB” trade.