Market Summary:
Copper still in downtrend, may have a small rally. Gold and Silver rally fails and both breakdown.
Crude continues the move higher. Natural Gas meets resistance and breaks lower.
The US 30yr Treasury – A break above the trend line allows for a long trade, tight stops.
The 10yr yield at 4.98%. The expected overbought level for the 10yr yield at 5.29%.
The US Dollar – The USD in a correction, but Long trade is intact.
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S&P 500 Futures #ESZ26, #MESZ26
Monthly –Monthly bar continues lower than the prior month. Trade pressures remain up, Volumes closed the month of September as bullish. The 7906 price remains the high. The next target up is 8752. A close below 7575 would confirm any weekly move lower.
Weekly – The weekly bar is below the prior week’s close and breaks trend line support. Trade pressures down into the neutral zone, and declining. Volumes are now bearish and lower than usual. The next target down is the 7536. A close above 7739 will confirmed any daily move higher.
Daily – Short. Tried to move up mid week, but failed. The move down below trend takes price back into the downward channel. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.
The next target down is 7550. The expected oversold level declines to 7601.
A close above 7731 would signal higher. The expected overbought level declines to 7818,
[OB/OS channel is declining.]
The VIX closes > 19, at 19.22 indicating market moving into the chop area.
The Hedgeye.com VIX risk range is 15.67-20.98.
The HE rising risk range suggests higher VIX.
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Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins each year at $100,000. The Top 5 Growth stocks are tracked throughout each year. This portfolio is reset to $100,000 for the 2026 year.
These Navellier Top 5 portfolio stocks closed:
Down 35% for the 2022 Year.
Up 17% for the 2023 Year.
Up 42% for the 2024 Year.
Up 48% for the 2025 Year
Portfolio stock values for 2026.
The portfolio value declines to $193,000.
The Year-to-Date portfolio performance is up 93%.
The Hedgeye.com GDP nowcast has GDP growth rising and inflation rising (Quad 2) in the 4rd quarter, slowing once again in the 1st quarter of 2027 with slowing Growth and Inflation (Quad 4).
6/26 – Now all cash for the summer; re-entering late July or early August, or re-entering if Navellier adds more defensive names.
7/25 – Monthly Quad shift (GDP and Inflation) to Quad 3 from a Quad 4 is likely in early August. Will look to re-enter positions.
8/2 – Re-entering the new Top 5 at the next open. CIEN, DINO, ENLT, MU, STX.
8/29 – replace Sinclair (DINO), Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLY), and Seagate Tech (STX) with Marathon Petro (MPC), PhillIps 66 (PSX), and San Disk (SNDK) at the next open.
10/4 – Replace Ciena (CIEN) and Micron (MU) with Dell Tech (DELL) and Plains GP Holdings (PAGP), at the next open.
The S&P 500 YTD return is 11.95%