Market Summary:

Copper move up is muted.  Gold in another bull flag; in negative correlation with the USD. Silver spiked on war news, then gives it all back.

Crude moved sharply higher but now prepping for a short.  Natural Gas now short.

The US 30yr Treasury expect yields lower. The 10yr yields now in the 4.30’s.

The US Dollar now long off the low pivot.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESU25

Monthly –Monthly bar above prior month month high but still selling off. Trade pressures remain in the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of May as neutral; and on lower volumes.  The 6285 price remains the adjusted high. The next target up is 6246. A close below 5850 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – The weekly bar remains above the October median line which is acting as support.  Trade pressures are up. Volumes remain are now neutral.  The next target up is 6248.  A close below 5897 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Flat.  Stopped out of the short trade for a gain.   Trade pressures are down but rising.  Volumes remain bearish.

This move down has created yet another lower high. The next target down is 5996. The expected oversold level rises to 5935.

A close above 6050 would signal higher. The next target up is 6090. The expected overbought level rises to 6068.

In the rising price channel between 5935 and 6068.
VIX is at 20.6, also in a channel between 15 and 22 (= Chop). Any break above 22 is a warning signal for the equity markets.

But, for now, can buy equities with VIX dips back to 15. Rallies above 22.

[6-23-25: The break above 6050 signaled higher. The SL is now 6134.]

[6-26-25: Now testing the upper channel resistance at 6165. VIX is at 16.7, its lower bound.]

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