Market Summary:

Copper Short crashed to the confluence of the 200 day MA and the August 2024 lower median line.  Gold “take profits” was timely as a $100 drop ensues. Silver drops more than $4.

Crude drops $7.  Natural Gas, Long fails.

The US 30yr Treasury breaks out with recession fears. The 10yr yields now around 4.00%.

The US Dollar rallies with the tariffs and the commodities down.

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S&P 500 Futures   #ESM25

Monthly –Monthly bar breaks below the lower median line from 10/23. Trade pressures drop into the neutral zone. Volumes closed the month of March as bearish.  The 6233 price remains the adjusted high. The next target down is 4917. A close above 5594 would confirm any weekly move higher.

Weekly – The weekly bar gaps lower.  Trade pressures remain down. Volumes remain bearish.  Blew thru the 5324 downside target. The next target down is 5056, then could target the October 2024 low. A close above 5486 would confirm any daily move higher.

Daily – Flat. The week began working higher thinking there would be some measured tariff response. Nope.  Dropped quickly from 5682 thru the Measured move at 5180. Trade pressures remain down.  Volumes remain bearish.

The next target down is 4773. The expected oversold level declines to 5313.

A close above 5729 would signal higher; then 5793.  The expected overbought level declines to 5670.

[ A short term rally could start with a close above 5138 setting 5347 as the upside target; then likely more downside]

A new equity market move up requires “fuel”; new money. That new money needs to see acceleration in earnings and margin expansion. Can that senario develop with oppresive tariffs/taxes? No.

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