Author: ChasW

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLM21

Weekly – The break above 64.28 has produced résistance. Trade pressures are up but declining.

Daily – Flat. Still in the move down However Trade pressures are turning up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 56.03.

A close above 62.31 would signal higher.

 

NAT GAS_ NGM21

Weekly – In the December 2020 downtrend. Trade pressures are down but rising.

Daily – Flat. Still in the down trend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 2.43 and is nearby.

A close above 2. 69 would signal higher.

 

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGK21

Weekly – In the June 2020 uptrend. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes remain bullish.

Daily – Flat. In the move up from the 4.05 signal. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 4.40.

Nearing support at 3.87. A  close below this level would signal lower

 

GOLD_ GCM21

Weekly – Moving up off the 1675 recent lows. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Long. In the move up from the 1696 long entry. Trade pressures are up Volumes are bullish.

At the 1727 target. The next target up is 1750. Set trailing stops at 10 points below the 1730 high.

A close below 1709 would signal a new move lower.

[4-5-21: the overnight high of 1732 brought the 10 point stop up to 1722 which was stopped out in the early morning hours.]

 

SILVER_ SIK21

Weekly – Still in the 22 – 30 channel. Trade pressures are down but showing a higher low. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down and has met the 24.06 downside target. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is the lower channel boundary at 22.

A close above 23.31 would signal higher.

 

 

 

 

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper has both time frames with trade pressures down. Gold is pulling back to the lower median line and Silver continues moving sideways.

Crude Oil is setting up for a short. Natural gas might make a move on the next bullish reversal of the trade pressures.

The US 30YR Treasury is in the long move down but may make a move into the 160’s first.

THe US Dollar futures are in the move up to the 93.88 level.

_____________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – In consolidation above the 3918 target. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of February as Bullish. The next target up is 4366. A close  below 3491 would confirm any weekly move lower.

Weekly – In the move up from the 3550 entry. Trade pressures are up but showing divergences. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 4094. A close below 3675 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Short. In the move down from the 3918 short entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is 3830. A close above 3978 would signal higher.

[3-31-21: New highs , short invalidated.]

_____________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins the year at $100,000. Only the Top 5 Growth stocks will be tracked this 2021 year. This portfolio has been marked to the market and restarted at $100,000 for the 2021 year.

The portfolio stocks dropped hard this week and ended the week at approximately $110,000, up 10% for the 2021 YTD.  The portfolio had a brief touch of the $150,000 value in early March. However, still outperforming the S&P averages.

Three stocks will replaced Monday. Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD), United Microelectronics (UMC), and Zoom (ZM) will be replaced by FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP) and Boston Beer (SAM).

 

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures  #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXM21

Weekly – Continues to rise off the 8933 downside target. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 93.79.

Daily – In the March move up from the 91.39 entry. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 93.88.

A close b elow 92.45 would signal lower.

 

US 30YR T-BONDS_ USM21

Weekly – In the Dec 2020 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the August 2020 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 153-21.

A close above 159-03 would signal higher.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLM21

Weekly – Backtesting the break above 64.28. Trade pressures are up but reversing. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Moving up off the 57.35 lows. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bearish.

The next target up is 65.45.

A close below 58.00 would signal lower.

 

NATGAS_ NGK21

Weekly –  In the Dec 2020 downtrend. Trade pressures are down, but reversing. Volumes are now neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move down. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

The next target up is 2.69, the new long entry price.

A close below 2.59 would resume the downtrend.

Metals

#copperfutures #goldfutures #silverfutures

COPPER_ HGK21

Weekly – In the June 2020 up trend. Trade pressures are up but rolling over. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Flat. Now testing support. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral.

The next target up is 4.26.

A close below the support at 3.87 would signal lower.

 

GOLD_ GCM21

Weekly – In the Dec downtrend. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. Looking for the next long entry at the next bullish daily reversal. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are neutral.

The next target  down is the lower median line at 1698.

The next target up is 1773.

[3-30-21: Long at 1685. Stops at 1675.] [Trail the stops with a 15 point trail.]

[3-31-21; Raise stops to a 10 point trail, now1704]

 

SILVER_ SIK21

Weekly –  Remains in the 22-28 channel. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes remain bearish.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 27.43 short entry. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 24.06.

A close above 26.01 would signal higher.

 

Navellier Top 5 Stocks for April

The following is provided by Navellier with technical comment from South Ocean Management – pls do your own due diligence.
(For this 2021 year, SOM will track only the Top 5 Hi-Growth Investments.)

https://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/

Navellier says,

High-Growth Investments

The Boston Beer Company, Inc.

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) remains well-positioned to benefit from the hard seltzer craze, as well as continuing demand for craft brews. Many folks who are looking to cut calories and carbs have turned to hard seltzers, as evidenced by the more than $4.0 billion in sales in 2020. Recent data from NielsenIQ showed hard seltzer sales soared 160.4% year-over-year in 2020 to $4.14 billion.

Based on the Boston Beer Company’s fourth-quarter results, it grabbed its fair share of the hard seltzer market last year. Company management noted, “The growth of the Truly brand, led by Truly Lemonade Hard Seltzer, continues to be very strong and well ahead of the hard seltzer category.” The Truly brand experienced triple-digit volume growth last year. And to further take advantage of this strength, the Boston Beer Company introduced Truly Iced Tea Hard Seltzer earlier this year.

For the fourth quarter overall, the Boston Beer Company saw a 54% increase in shipments and achieved revenue of $460.9 million, or 53% year-over-year growth. Fourth-quarter earnings surged 135.7% year-over-year to $32.8 million, or $2.64 per share, which topped estimates for earnings of $2.62 per share.

Looking ahead to fiscal year 2021, SAM is focusing its attention on the Truly and Twisted Tea brands in order to maintain its leading position and increase market share as more beverage companies introduce seltzers this year. Full-year 2021 earnings are expect to grow between 28.8% and 54.5%. SAM is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $1,334.

SOM Technicals:

3-27-21: Closed at 1159.99. Trade pressures are neutral. Volumes are  bullish. Testing resistance. The next target up is 1236.

04-03-21: Closed at 1184.68. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bearish. the next target down is 1145.

04-10-21: Closed at 1253.10. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1273.15.

04-16-21: Closed at 1294.93. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 1368.45.

04-24-21: Closed at 1283.90. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral. The next target up is 1368.

 

Futu Holdings Ltd.

Futu Holdings Ltd. (FUTU), our Chinese online brokerage platform, continues to attract more paying clients throughout Asia and the world. The company added 98,632 paying customers in the fourth quarter, with more than half of these clients from Hong Kong and overseas. At the end of 2020, FUTU had a total of 516,721 paying clients, which represented a 160.5% year-over-year increase.

FUTU also noted that its total number of registered clients jumped 97.8% year-over-year to 1.42 million, while its total number of users rose 58.6% year-over-year to 11.9 million. Thanks to the increase in folks dipping their toes into the financial markets, FUTU also achieved blowout quarterly and yearly results.

For its fourth quarter, FUTU reported total revenue of HK$1.2 billion, or a 281.6% year-over-year increase. Adjusted earnings surged to HK$552.9 million. In U.S. dollar terms, Futu Holdings achieved fourth-quarter revenue of $153 million and adjusted earnings of $71.3 million. Fourth-quarter earnings per ADS surged 880% year-over-year to $0.49, up from $0.05 per ADS in the same quarter a year ago. That topped estimates for earnings of $0.45 per ADS by 8.9%.

For fiscal year 2020, Futu Holdings announced total revenue of $427 million and adjusted earnings of $175.9 million. That represented 213.3% annual revenue growth and 655% annual earnings growth. Full-year earnings per ADS increased 712.5% year-over-year to $1.30, also beating estimates for earnings of $1.19 per ADS.

In the wake of the strong quarterly report, the analyst community increased its full-year outlook in the past week. FUTU’s full-year 2021 earnings are now forecast to soar 148.7% year-over-year to $2.96 per ADS, up from previous estimates for $2.40 per ADS. FUTU is an Aggressive buy below $156.

SOM Technicals:

03-27-21: Closed at 114.69. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 131.56.

04-03-21: Closed at 153.60. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 186.42.

04-10-21: Closed at 156.70. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is 186.42.

04-16-21: Closed at 153.01. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral. Consolidating at the 153 target. 

04-24-21: Closed at 143.81. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral. The net target up is the 188.39 level. 

 

Horizon Therapeutics Ltd.

Horizon Therapeutics Ltd. (HZNP) develops treatments for rare and rheumatic diseases. The company’s current portfolio includes 10 medicines that are available in the U.S.: KRYSTEXXA for gout; DUEXIS, PENNSAID, RAYOS and VIMOVO for inflammation; TEPEZZA for ophthalmology; and ACTIMMUNE, BUPHENYL, PROCYBSI and RAVICTI for rare diseases. Horizon Therapeutics also recently acquired Viela, which expands the company’s pipeline to include UPLIZNA, a treatment for a rare autoimmune disease.

Thanks to its expanding pipeline and strong sales of KRYSTEXXA and TEPEZZA, Horizon Therapeutics achieved record results in the fourth quarter of 2020. In the fourth quarter, KRYSTEXXA sales accounted for $128.9 million, while TEPEZZA sales came in at $343.7 million. Total fourth-quarter sales soared 105% year-over-year to $745.3 million.

Horizon Therapeutics also reported that fourth-quarter earnings surged 129% year-over-year to $1.28 per share, up from $0.56 per share in the same quarter a year ago. The consensus estimate called for earnings of $1.06 per share on $693.54 million, so HZNP topped earnings estimates by 20.8% and sales forecasts by 7.5%.

Looking forward to fiscal year 2021, Horizon Therapeutics continues to expect double-digit revenue growth. Full-year revenue is expected to be between $2.7 billion and $2.8 billion, up from $2.2 billion in fiscal year 2020. HZNP is a Moderately Aggressive buy below $94.

SOM Technicals:

03-27-21:Closed at 83.01. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 76.28.

04-03-21: Closed at 90.50. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is the prior high at 98.54.

04-10-21: Closes at 91.48. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 93.80, the upside resistance.

04-16-21: Closed at 93.24. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. A close below 92.56 would signal lower.

04-24-21: Closed at 94.63. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 98.43.

 

Logitech International

Logitech International (LOGI) has done it again. The company boosted its outlook for fiscal year 2021 for the fourth time in the past three months! Clearly, Logitech is continuing to experience strong demand for its computer and at-home office products—headsets, keyboards, mice, speakers, webcams, etc.—amidst the global pandemic.

Logitech’s fiscal year 2021 draws to a close at the end of March, and it looks like the company will unveil record results. For fiscal year 2021, Logitech expects sales to increase 63% year-over-year, compared to previous forecasts for 57% to 60% annual sales growth. Operating income is also forecast to be about $1.1 billion, up from previous estimates for $600 million.

In response to the new guidance, the analyst community has also increased estimates for Logitech’s fourth quarter in fiscal year 2021. For the fourth quarter, earnings are expected to double to $0.84 per share and sales are forecast to jump 54.1% year-over-year to $1.09 billion. LOGI is a Conservative buy below $111.

SOM Technicals:

12-19-20: Closed at 94.85. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. In the move up from 86.80. The next target up is 99.86.

12-26-20: Closed at 92.96. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target up is the prior high at 95.94.

01-01-21: Closed at 97.19. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 99.86.

01-08-21: Closed at 104.85. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Zipped thru the 99.86 level; at the 105.70 target. Expect some retracement.

01-16-21: Closed at 100.91. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Now in the new short. The next target down is 97.12 which is also a support level.

01-22-21: Closed at 104.20. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Testing the 105 highs.

02-26-21: Closed at 108.50. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 102.28.

03-05-21: Closed at 95.19. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. Found support at the 91.99 downside target.

03-13-21: Closed at 98.96. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 102.26.

03-20-21: Closed at 101.67. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 105.86.

03-27-21: Closed at 103.99. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 113.20.

04-03-21: Closed at 107.98. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 113.20.

04-10-21: Closed at 109.01. Trade pressures are in the neutral zone. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 113.20. 

04-16-21: Closed at 113.45. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 114.96.

04-24-21: Closed at 117.60. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 124.60.

 

Novavax, Inc.

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) is making its seventh-straight appearance on the Top 5 Stocks list this month, as it continues to aid in the fight against the coronavirus. You may recall that Novavax develops vaccines for the toughest viruses in the world, including the coronavirus. Recently, the company revealed that its vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, had a final efficacy of 96.4% against COVID-19, based on its Phase 3 trial in the U.K. Its South African Phase 2b trial demonstrated 55.4% efficacy against HIV-negative trial patients.

Overall, Novavax announced that NVX-CoV2373 offered 100% protection against hospitalization and death from COVID-19. Company management commented, “We are very encouraged by the data showing NVX-CoV2373 not only provided complete protection against the most severe forms of disease, but also dramatically reduced mild and moderate disease across both trials.”

Novavax plans to submit this data to global regulatory agencies and seek authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine. I should add that Novavax’s vaccine can be stored at normal refrigerator temperatures, and it has secured agreements to deliver about 300 million doses of the vaccine. Novavax is also in talks with the FDA and plans to file an emergency use authorization in the second quarter. NVAX is an Aggressive buy below $282.

SOM Technicals:

9-26-20: Closed at 113.56. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 129.69.

10-11-20: Closed at 111.12. Trade pressures are up and trending. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 129.00.

10-17-20: Closed at 107.04. Trade pressures are down. volumes are bearish. A close below 101 would signal lower.

10-24-20: Closed at 93.13. Trade pressures are down and trending. Volumes are bullish. the next target down is 73.45.

10-30-20: Closed at 80.71. Trade pressures are down but rising. The next target down is 73.45. A close above 117.39 would start a new move up.

11-07-20: Closed at 89.86. Trade pressures are up but reversing. Volumes are bullish. Need a close above the 25×5 at 98 to restart the move up.

11-14-20: Closed at 96.60. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. A close above 100 would signal higher.

11-20-20: Closed at 86.60. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. At resistance. The next target down is 73.45. A break of the resistance would signal higher to 117.39.

11-29-20: Closed at 126.20. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. Thru the 117 target and now at the 123 target. The next target up is 160.90.

12-05-20: Closed at 126.25. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral. In a retracement inside the move up. The next target down is 94.06.

12-11-20: Closed at 124.88. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bearish. The next target up is 162.34.

12-19-20: Closed at 124.85. Trade pressures are up into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. Need a break above the 136.00 level to establish a new long.

12-29-20: Closed at 129.34. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are neutral. A close above 133.09 would signal a new move up.

01-01-21: Closed at 111.54. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. Closed below the 25×5 MA . The next target down is 94.09.

01-08-21: Closed at 121.69. Trade pressures are up but reversing. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 94.09.

01 -16-21: Closed at 127.43. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. Have closed above the upper median line. the next target up is the prior high at 150.50.

01-22-21: Closed at 126.98. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bearish. Support is 105.70.

01-29-21: Closed at 220.69. Trade pressures are up. Volumes up huge on the vaccine trial news, but finished as neutral. The next target up is 248.09.

02-05-21: Closed at 290.18. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral. Past all near term targets. A double in 20% percent of the portfolio makes the returns soar.

02-12-21: Closed at 289.76. Trade pressures are down into the neutral zone. Volumes are neutral. The next target down is 275.27.

02-19-21: Closed at 277.88. Trade pressures are rising into the neutral zone. Volumes are now neutral. Bounced off support at 250.00.

02-26-21: Closed at 238.42. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 149.15.

03-05-21: Closed at 174.84. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. Found support at the 149.15 downside target.

03-13-21: Closed at 202.77. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 260.18.

03-20-21: Closed at 228.25. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 260.18.

03-27-21: Closed at 181.84. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are  bearish. The next target down is 147.39.

04-03-21: Closed at 187.17. Trade pressure are up. Volumes are neutral. In the second leg up, but indecisive. Need a close above the 25×5 at 213.48 to get going again.

04-10-21: Closed at 179.51. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are still neutral.  The next target up is the new long entry at 200.62.

04-16-21: Closed at 227.35. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish. The new long entry brought in buyers and a big move up. The next target up is 260.18.

04-24-21: Closed at 207.92. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bullish. The next target down is the 171.90 support.

S&P 500 Futures

#emini #spfutures #SP500 #ES

Market Pressures_

Copper is in consolidation. Gold tried to move up on FED day but gave it all back. Silver is in consolidation.

Crude oil is down with more to come. Natural gas looks lower also.

The US 30 Year Treasuries are selling hard but look to consolidate and retrace here.

The US Dollar futures are consolidating after the new long entry.

_____________________

S&P 500 Futures_

Monthly – Backed off the highs. Trade pressures are up. Volumes closed the month of February as bullish. The next target up is 4366. A close below 3491 would confirm any weekly close lower.

Weekly – In the move up from the 3550 long entry signal. Trade pressures are up but showing divergences. Volumes are bullish. The next target up is 4094. A close below 3686 would confirm any daily move lower.

Daily – Short.  In the move down from the March 18th short entry at 3918. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish. The next target down is 3830 then 3739, A close above 3965 would signal higher. First quarter earnings catalyst not until mid april.

_____________________

Navellier Top 5 Stocks – This Top 5 model portfolio begins the year at $100,000. Only the Top 5 Growth stocks will be tracked this 2021 year. This portfolio has been marked to the market and restarted at $100,000 for the 2021 year.

The portfolio stocks consolidated this week and ended the week at approximately $118,000, up 18% for the 2021 YTD.  The portfolio had a brief touch of the $150,000 value in early March.

 

[The author may have long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned.]

US$$

#usdollarfutures  #ustreasurybondfutures

USD_ DXM21

Weekly – Testing the 92.99 resistance line. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are bullish.

Daily – Now back testing the break above the 91.30. Trade pressures are up. Volumes are now neutral.

The next target up is the downward sloping pitchfork upper median line at 91.30. A close over that would lead to the a test of the 92.30 recent pivot high.

A close below 91.15 would signal lower once again.

What could go wrong? Inflation vs Deflation. Hot economy vs cold economy.

 

US 30YR T-BONDS_ USM21

Weekly – These historically low interest rates seem to no where to go but up. In the December 2020 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. The February move down is likely complete. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

The next target down is still 153-21.

A close above 155-04 would signal a retracement up tpo perhaps 160-19.

Oil & Gas

#crudeoilfutures #naturalgasfutures

CRUDE_ CLM21

Weekly – Now pulling back form the 64.23 upside target. Trade pressures are up but declining. Volumes are neutral.

Daily – Flat. In the move down from the 65.54 short entry for the retracement. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are now neutral.

The next target  down is 55.98.

A close above 63.14 would signal higher.

 

NAT GAS_ NGK21

Weekly – In the December 2020 downtrend. Trade pressures are down. Volumes are bearish.

Daily – Flat. At the 161% downside target. Trade pressures are down but rising. Volumes are bullish.

The next target down is 2.34.

A close above 2.64 would signal a new move up.