Category: Trade Setups

Intel (INTC) stopped out

 

INTCIntel is below both the 80 day and the 200 day, so this is a retracement trade. The dividend is 3.00% at current prices and should pay around August 7th.

Weekly trade pressures are down. Weekly volume is still bearish.

Daily trade pressures are down but rising and ready to cross into positive territory. Volume is bullish.

The trade entry price is 32.22. The actual trade entry is 32.38.

The first target is 34.30. Since this is a retracement trade this first target will be the exit.

Stops at 31.60, which is also the new short entry.

[Update 7/6: this trade was stopped out at the open on 6/26 @31.51. A loss of $.87, or -2.7%.]

Reynolds American (RAI) [sell at target]

RAITrade pressures are down but rising. Volume is bullish changed from neutral.  Now testing the 80 day moving average as resistance. Expect upside follow thru from this 3.7% dividend stock.

The long entry price is 73.20.
The first target is 77.12.
Stops at 70.74

[6/18: two days of upward momentum and bullish volume approaching the first target. Move the stop to the entry price of 73.20.]

[6/19: Friday morning run to the first target of 77.12. Sold here with the weekend and the Greek situation still in the headlines.
A 5.3% return in 3 days!
And a risk free trade after the second day when stops were raised to the entry price.]

Euro Futures [closed-targets met]

Euro – June futures contract_ Weekly – Trading between 1.043 and the weekly long entry confirmation of 1.092. Trade pressures are still negative but rising. Volume is bearish. a break of the lows would set up a .9745 downside weekly target. Daily – Two long trade cycles working. One is long from 1.0765. the other…

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Bank of America [sold for 7.1% gain in 54 days]

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. Volume has changed to Neutral from Bearish. Earnings report on 4/15 pre-market.

Daily – Trade is long from 15.69 with a first target of 16.38. Trade pressures are down, but rising.
Volume is bullish.

Stops at 15.26 at the pivot low.

BAC

 

[5/4 Update: raise stops to break-even @15.69. The 16.38 target is also the 200 day moving average.
Next target up after 16.38 is 17.08.
3:00pm: closed above the 16.38 target. If not already sold, move target to the 17.08]

[5/21: Sell at the 17.08 level. Raise the stop to 16.08.]

BAC

[6/3:Raise stops to 16.81, sell the 17.08 target]

BAC

[6/5: stopped out at the 16.81 level at the open and then closes at 17.22.
So, a 54 day trade gains 1.12, or 7.1% in a difficult market environment.
The stop was raised to break-even on 5/4, so a risk-less trade from then to now.]

30YR T-Bonds

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13098988/1/doug-kass-says-the-bull-market-in-bonds-will-end-this-year.html?kval=dontmiss

The Weekly trade pressures are still up. Weekly volume closed bullish last week and will likely close bullish this week, albeit with substantially lower volume.

The Daily trade is long from the 158-10/32 entry price, meeting the first and 100% targets, and is now attempting to test the prior 167-18/32 high.

There is a 167.90 target above that would likely resist any breakout.

Long? Take profits.

Short? Yes, but at our 163-21/32 short entry. Or, the most aggressive can fade that 167.90 resistance with tight stops.

[Update 5/4: the 158-21 downside target offered no resistance. The next target down is 153-28. 159-27 is the stop and possible new long entry.]

ISIS Pharmaceuticals

ISISISIS Pharmaceuticals reports Friday morning the 27th.

Weekly – in a pullback inside the longer term uptrend. trade pressures have been declining but remain positive. Volume is bearish .

Daily –  the trade is long from the 67.04 entry price. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. The next target up is 82.31.

This is a longer cycle trade so expect to hold this for this earnings report and into the next.  The stop is the 80 day, 59.70 currently.

there is a short cycle target at 70.89 with a closer in stop at 63.09.

[Update 3/5/2015: move sell stop to the entry price of 67.04.  The short cycle target of 70.83 has been met. The next target is 75.65 and the Jan’15 highs of 75.10.  The volatility is high with 2-3 point daily trading ranges. OK to take profits on any wide ranging up day.]

[Update 3/6/2015: SOLD @ 71.50. A profit of $4.46 which equals a 6.65% return in less than two weeks. S&P turning down with worries of interest increases.  We will come back to this trade later.]  ISIS

 

 

EUFN – the exit

EUFN-3Weekly – three weeks of bullish volume. A close above 23.56 would change the weekly trend to up.  The announcement of the short term debt extension for the Greeks firmed up the move.

So, this Daily move up is still a correction in a weekly down trend.

Daily – Volume is bullish. Trade pressures are up. The trade has closed above the 22.96 target. The temporary nature of the Greek financing agreement makes us believe we will see another move down and then look for a longer term move up from this expected correction. So, this target was the trade exit. The first target has a higher percentage of success with the upper time frame not confirming the trade time frame.

Keep this ETF on the watch list.

So a long entry at 21.61, an exit at 22.96, with good trade management produces $1.35 (6.2%) gross profit in less than 20 days. Can you do this every month? Every trade? No.

INTC

INTCWeekly – Trade pressures are down. Volume has turned neutral. INTC Has completed the move down to the weekly 31.99 target.

Daily – Trade pressures have turned up. Volume is bullish. The long entry price is 34.56. the next target up is 37.71.  The trade will be wrong if price closes below the 200 MA, currently 33.20.  Price has closed above the long entry price once in the last three days. A second time thru should confirm the long entry. Watch the intraday charts for the reversal.

Use that 200 MA level as the stop.

[Update: 2/23] No entry. price is pulling back to the 200 Day MA and showing positive divergence. Bullish volume and Positive trade pressures. Watch for a “wash and rinse” at the 200 day.

[Update 3/12/2015:] Cancel the trade. No entry as the price failed to close above the long entry price. Now the price has closed below the 200 day and prior pivot points – A good view of the South Ocean method keeping us out of a trade.

EUFN [update] Euro Financials

Trade pressures still neutral. Weekly volume has been bullish for two weeks. Daily volume has turned bullish after three days of a pullback, closing at 22.59 near the first target of 22.96.

South Ocean first moves the stop to the entry price of 21.61 So, the trade now has no risk with the stop at the entry price. Then would take this first target gain at 22.96 as the momentum indicators seem listless.   But, review the indicators when price reaches target and make the sell decision.

EUFN-2

EUFN – Euro Financials

EUFN

Trade pressures are neutral. Volume is neutral. Hitting resistance at the 25×5.
the long entry is 21.60 with a 22.96 first target.  Intraday has 4 hrs of bullish volume.
can take the trade with a 21.stop,

[update 2-6-2015] @ the 2 hr target of 27.78 and has changed to uptrend on the Daily.

[Update 2/15/2015] move the stop to the 21.61 entry price.